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Jun 8, 2009

Economists Surprised That People Read the Paper

The Grand Unification Theory of Sucking
06/07/09 - VodkaPundit by Stephen Green

[edited] Big Government Spending Programs are Having an Opposite Effect

The Federal Reserve announced a $1.2 trillion plan three months ago designed to push down mortgage rates and breathe life into the housing market.

But this and other big government spending programs are having the opposite effect. Rates for mortgages and U.S. Treasury debt are now marching higher as nervous bond investors fret about a resurgence of inflation.

Well, duh! Stimulus spending can’t work, because these things happen, and I’d say we will indeed get all three:

1. Extra spending means extra taxes, which means the whole thing is a wash. It is a big, fat lie that Government spending has a “multiplier” effect different from consumer or business spending.

2. Extra spending means extra debt, driving up interest rates and choking growth.

3. Extra spending means printing money. Resulting inflation makes any growth an illusion.

This is a great comment by Shannon Love who posts at ChicagoBoys

[edited] Leftist economists don't understand that people read the paper.

The problem with their stimulus theory starts with their assumption that everyone will behave just as they would have without a stimulus, up to the point that the stimulus spending reaches a critical mass sometime next year.

However, people read the newspaper, see the tsunami of taxes, regulation, and inflation coming their way, and they alter their behavior immediately. Passing the stimulus bill today and planning to raise taxes tomorrow, alters people’s behavior right now. The expectation of paying for the stimulus later drives down economic activity now, long before the stimulus can hope to have any effect.

Obama’s team can’t see this because they have an ivory tower model of the economy. They think people do not make economic decisions until they actually receive money. They can’t seem to grasp that the economy results from the choices of real, live, human beings who can and do make plans based on their predictions of future conditions.

Obama expects people to stand around passively until Obama does something that makes them react. Instead, they’re anticipating him.

+ + + +
Stimulus Does Not Cure a Recession
Jobs change when people change what they want to buy or can afford. This takes time and adjustment. Businesses won't hire because of a short-term boost to their income that is being borrowed from later taxes.

Why Spending Stimulus Plans Fail
Government spending merely transfers jobs and income from one part of the economy to another.

Econ 201: The Myth of the Economic Multiplier
Government spending doesn't multiply anything. It takes resources from taxpayers and applies them to government projects. You get a bridge or some paperwork, that is it.

Jun 6, 2009

The Climate Change That Isn't

Climate Change Reconsidered
06/05/09 - PowerLineBlog by John Hinderaker

The 880 page book Climate Change Reconsidered has been published by the Nongovernmental International Panel on Climate Change (NIPCC). At the highest level, these are the conclusions:

[edited] This is an authoritative and detailed rebuttal of the findings of the United Nations' Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). The Obama Administration and Democrats in Congress are relying on bad conclusions from the IPCC.

The scholarship in this book demonstrates overwhelming scientific evidence that

  • The warming of the twentieth century was moderate and not unprecedented.
  • Its impact on human health and wildlife was positive.
  • Carbon dioxide probably is not the driving factor behind climate change.

The authors cite thousands of peer-reviewed research papers and books that were ignored by the IPCC, plus additional scientific research that became available after the IPCC's self-imposed deadline of May 2006.

* The IPCC uses warming data from surface recording stations, yielding a 1905-2005 temperature increase of 0.74° C. But, this temperature record is not corrected for the urban heat island (UHI) effect. [UHI is warming from streets, buildings, and roofs which are the sites for the temperature stations.] The UHI of even small towns dwarfs any greenhouse effect that might be present [making that data useless].

* Highly accurate satellite data, adjusted for orbit drift and other factors, show a much more modest warming trend in 1980-2000 and a dramatic decline in the warming trend in 2000-2009.

* The observed pattern of warming differs from the pattern predicted by global climate models based on CO2 greenhouse effects.

Data from the U.S. Climate Change Science Program (CCSP) is unequivocal. All greenhouse models show an increasing warming trend with altitude in the tropics, peaking around 10 km at roughly twice the surface value. But, the actual temperature data from balloons give the opposite result: no increasing warming, but rather a slight cooling with altitude.

* Temperature records in Greenland and other Arctic areas reveal that temperatures reached a maximum around 1930 and have decreased in recent decades. Longer-term studies show oscillatory cooling since the Climatic Optimum of the mid-Holocene (~9000-5000 years ago), when it was perhaps 2.5° C warmer than it is now.

* The average temperature history of Antarctica provides no evidence of twentieth century warming. The Antarctic peninsula shows recent warming, but several research teams have documented a cooling trend for the interior of the continent since the 1970s.

Jun 5, 2009

A Liberal Judge

I Don’t Know What Liberal Means
06/05/09 - National Review by Ed Whelan
Via PowerLine

Mr. Whelan fills in a weak area in Judge Sontomayor's knowledge, and offers a directory to her statements and opinions. [Quotes are edited.]

Judge Sotomayor gave a speech in January 2001, and provided this account. She explained her problems being confirmed to the Second Circuit court:
Senate Republican leaders believed that I was a potential for the Supreme Court one day. They also believed that I am a liberal, and therefore did not want the nomination to go through. I don’t know what liberal means.
Sotomayor was an assistant district attorney in 1983. Evidently she knew what “liberal” meant when quoted in a New York Times article.
I had more problems during my first year in the office with the low-grade crimes such as shoplifting, prostitution, and minor assault cases. In large measure, in those cases you were dealing with socio-economic crimes, crimes that could be the product of the environment and of poverty.

Once I started doing felonies, it became less hard. No matter how liberal I am, I’m still outraged by crimes of violence. Regardless of whether I can sympathize with the causes that lead these individuals to do these crimes, the effects are outrageous.

Sotomayor's phrase "No matter how liberal I am" is the same as saying "Even though I am very liberal".

Among other things, Sotomayor understood back then that a liberal "sympathizes with the causes that lead these individuals to do these crimes" and is inclined to explain crimes as "the product of the environment and of poverty."

But I think that I can offer Sotomayor even more help on what liberal means, at least in the context of judging.

A liberal judge thinks that it is proper to indulge her own identity in deciding cases.

A liberal judge celebrates "the importance of indefiniteness in the law" and the "unpredictability" that results when a judge "develops a novel approach" that "pushes the law in a new direction."

A liberal judge resorts to shenanigans to bury the claims of white firefighters that they have been discriminated against on the basis of their race.

A liberal judge favors campaign-finance restrictions over the First Amendment.

A liberal judge embraces novel equal-protection theories that would compromise public safety.

A liberal judge publicly cheerleads liberal politicians.

A liberal judge excuses her own acts of discrimination.

A liberal judge thinks that Supreme Court justices are entitled to make policy.

A liberal judge hides her support for racial quotas behind gauzy euphemisms.

A liberal judge commends lawsuits that promote abortion and illegal immigration and that undermine welfare reform.

Jun 3, 2009

My Fantasy Beats Your Reality

Reality Versus Leftist Fantasy
06/03/09 - ChicagoBoyz by Shannon Love

[edited] Leftists claim that every economic crisis shows the failure of the free market, and assume that they would never have economic crises. Leftists have a wildly exaggerated sense of their own understanding of the economy and everything else.

The left doesn’t actually have a developed system of thought regarding the economy. They can’t actually explain why the real world political process will make better decisions than the free-market. Instead, they point to any reversals in the real economy, regardless of cause, and assert that in their imaginations leftist politicians could have done better.

Leftists create elaborate fantasies. Then everyone else must argue for reality against the fantasies. The real-world system always comes out worse.

Alternative-energy advocates feel entitled to paper over any shortcomings of their favored technology by evoking future technological breakthroughs. But, they won’t let you postulate future technological breakthroughs that would make current energy sources even more attractive.

If you point out that wind and solar power is unreliable to the point of near uselessness, proponents will breezily respond that future technological breakthroughs in power storage or distribution will overcome the problem.

However, if you point out that developments in nuclear technology could create power systems that would completely recycle their waste, they respond that we should not plan for nuclear power unless we have absolutely proven that the technology works. And, let’s cut funding for the research that would prove it works.


There are More Ways to Go Wrong Than to Go Right
06/19/09 - ChicagoBoyz by Shannon Love

Many leftists debate in this style: “I have an idea and you don’t, therefore I must have the best plan”.

I see this in debates about energy. Some believe fossil fuels cause global warming and nuclear power is too dangerous, so solar and wind power must be viable technologies. Unfortunately, the fact that one specific technology has problems has nothing to do with whether another unrelated technology will work.

The urge to do something, anything, to solve a problem can backfire badly. People immersed in politics begin to think that because there are only two major divisions in our politics, there must be only two altnerate solutions to any problem.

They begin to think that if the idea of one side is bad, then the idea of the other side must be good. If we think that any idea is better than no idea at all, we are more likely to do more harm than good. There are more ways to go wrong than to go right.


Will universal healthcare control costs?
06/16/09 - The Atlantic by Megan McArdle

There have been promised cost reductions for Medicare in the past. Why haven’t they happened, and what has changed to make them feasible now? When I ask this question, I get angry demands that I put forward my plan for cost control, rather than merely critiquing everyone else’s. This seems rather like demanding that I put forward my design for a perpetual motion machine before I am allowed to point out problems in the US energy market.

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Magic Power
Could the nerds give us cheap power if they wanted to?

Problems With Green Energy
"Honey, please go up on the roof and sweep off the solar panels."

More on Energy choices ...

They Are Profiting From My Needs

Birthday Party

Around 1979, I was asked to leave a birthday party in Cambridge, MA. The party was by and for "Alice" who was a friend of my girlfriend at the time. About 20 of Alice's friends and their dates were there.

Alice bought a birthday cake for her party, for $35 at today's prices. During conversation, Alice complained that the cake was great, but too expensive. She knew the price when she ordered it. She said the bakery had "ripped her off" because they had made a profit selling her the cake. She needed a cake, and they had profited from her need.

I was hooked. I suggested that she could have bought a cheaper cake at a different bakery, or could have made the cake herself. Why did she blame the bakery for selling her a cake that she wanted to buy? I said these things nicely. I really wanted to know why she felt that way.

Alice said that she couldn't make such a nice cake, so she was forced to buy one. She knew that the ingredients cost about $10, so the bakery was adding in a big profit. It was a rip-off.

Read more ...

I said that the bakery had to pay the bakers, and rent the store, and other expenses, and have something left over, so the cake was going to cost much more than the ingredients. Alice replied that she didn't make any profit working for the City of Cambridge, so why should the bakery make a profit from her?

I suggested to Alice that her salary was her own profit, after subtracting her costs such as taking the bus to work. Alice said that she wasn't in business and didn't make a profit. She worked for the City of Cambridge helping residents, and she was paid too little for the hard and good work that she did.

She said that things would cost a lot less if businesses weren't taking those profits from her. I said that the bakery would not stay in business if it could not earn a profit. She said that it was fine with her if they went out of business, but that they shouldn't overcharge her as long as they were in business.

You may have guessed that there was increasing tension in this conversation.

I said that she was missing the central point. She said that I was being a pain. Cambridge is a liberal town in a liberal state. Many of Alice's friends also worked for Cambridge, and no one was helping to explain my view. After a few quiet whispers from her friends, my girlfriend suggested that everyone would be happier if we left. I didn't get a slice of the cake.

Yes, now I'm more resigned about these attitudes, and I won't do it again.
 

Non-Profit vs Profit

Profit is a dirty word to some people all of the time, and to most people some of the time. An "AntiProfit" thinks that profits are evil. According to an AntiProfit:

  • Non-profit is associated with hospitals and charities. Idealistic people work for non-profit organizations and governments, which are supported by contributions or taxes to do good works.

    If a non-profit collects fees for some services, those services are delivered below cost, so this activity is still pure and helpful. If a service is delivered above cost, for example registering cars, the "additional revenue" supports the organization, so it is good.

    Motto: "We're here to help"

  • Profit is associated with deal-making and pressure to buy. They have stuff that you want, and they make you pay for it. They try to sell products above cost and for the most profit. This profit could have stayed in their customer's pockets. Most of the employees are good people, but management is grasping for outsized salaries and money making schemes.

    Motto: "We charge as much as possible".


Understanding Profits

I don't hate profits, and I don't see profits as being the result of greed. I feel this way because I understand how businesses operate and where the profits come from.

The short answer is that "profit" is only a special name for what the owners and investors are paid. Profit is not "extra", "excess charges", or "anything we can squeeze from the customer".

The long answer is that profit becomes clear when you understand some detail about how a business operates. You probably won't hate profit after seeing where it comes from. We will look at Jim The Waiter, a service business; Busy Eats restaurant combining investment with service; and a pure Investor.

When you see a business as being a group of the managers, employees, service providers, and owners all together, then profit is the portion of business income paid to the owners, with the rest of business income paid to the other participants and suppliers. Business income is divided among the people who contribute to the business, including the owners.
 

Jim The Waiter

Jim earns about $50 in wages and $60 in tips each workday. He tips the busboys $4, spends $5 on commuting, and sets aside $1 for cleaning his work clothes. He has $100 remaining on average (net income before taxes).

We can regard Jim as the sole-proprietor of a service business. He sells a service to the restaurant and its customers and makes a profit before taxes of $100 per day.

Jim wants the highest income he can get from his work. AntiProfits don't object if Jim as a worker asks for $5/day more in wages. He has a right to sell his services for anything he wants. Jim can ask for a raise, and his employer can agree or not. Either side can end Jim's employment. Then Jim can find another job, maybe at a higher wage, and his employer may hire the services of someone else.

Jim earns extra income (more profit) by delivering better and faster service. He serves four more tables each shift than he did when he was less experienced. Jim's customers are not hurt by Jim's extra profit. Rather, they enjoy the better service and pay more 20% tips.
 

Busy Eats Restaurant

The Busy Eats restaurant employs Jim, other waiters, busboys, cooks, and a manager. It rents its building and buys accounting, advertising, electricity, and security monitoring. It uses tables, dishes, cooking ranges, and refrigerators. It buys, stores, and prepares food. It pays taxes on its own income and withholds taxes for its employees. The owners have spent money setting this up or buying an operating business, and they manage the business or hire managers.

It is convenient to say "Busy Eats" when it is really the owners and managers who have the risk and responsibility for delivering a service. The manager's salary and bonus comes from attracting customers by offering good food, service, and atmosphere. The customers can easily refuse this offer.

Any cash remaining after expenses belongs to the owners as their share (profit). Making money from the business is the reason the owners paid money (invested) to start or buy the restaurant, and took the risk of loss. The owners and managers must create and sell a service that will pay their salaries and profit, or the managers will lose their jobs and the owners will lose their money. The owners probably have restaurant experience that increases their chance of success.

Losing money operating Busy Eats would be as painful as putting $10,000 into a mutual fund and getting only $5,000 back, or nothing back, or even having to lose $2,000 more in addition.

  Break Even

Each meal served gives Busy Eats a little extra cash, the bill minus the cost of the food and cleanup. The cook and the waiter are on an 8 hour shift and need to serve many meals to pay their salaries and make tips. Busy Eats pays monthly rent on its building which must be paid from serving many meals. And so on.

"Break even" for Busy Eats is the sales needed to pay all of the expenses. That may require being 60% full for six hours each day. This level of success is unhappy for the owners, who couldn't sell the business for much. It isn't making any money for the owners (no profit), so it is no good being an owner.

Things are OK at 70% full. The cash from the extra customers pays the owners and a bonus to the managers. If Busy Eats cost $200,000 to set up, and it makes $20,000 in profit each year, the owners get about a 10% yearly return on their investment. Busy Eats could be sold for about what it cost to set up.

  Doing Well

Busy Eats might operate at 95% full, if they serve great food and people love the place. They would be happy making a profit of $70,000 on their investment of $200,000, giving them a 35% return. They could sell Busy Eats to new owners for about $700,000. The new owners would be getting a 10% return at that price on a successful business. The original owners would receive a "capital gain" of $500,000 above their investment of $200,000.

Where did all of this value come from? The owners created something that delivers value to their customers. They organized the services of their employees and managers, and they invested in the building, interior design, and equipment to convert groceries into great meals in a nice atmosphere.

The owners are using resources efficiently. They serve 95 people using the same physical resources that would have served only 70 people at 70% full. The owners employ 30% more cooks and waiters than they would have at 70% full. Jim the Waiter is happy to be earning a reliable salary and tips from a busy dining room.

  Prices

The price of a meal did not change; it is the efficiency of operating at 95% full that is earning the owners their large profit. The profit doesn't make the food and service great; it is the food and service that make the profit great. So, a customer usually gets a better meal at a profitable restaurant than at a less profitable one.

Where does AntiProfit go to lunch? He likes the restaurant Quiet Time down the street, operating at 60% full and making no profit. He appreciates that they aren't making any money off of him above their costs. The food is passable and it isn't crowded, while it stays in business.

AntiProfit dislikes the restaurant Busy Eats, operating at 95% full and making a big profit. AntiProfit thinks they are charging too much, although their meal price is about the same as Quiet Time. The food is great. He is offended by the crowded atmosphere and the large volume of dirty dishes, at least 25% more than at Quiet Time. He feels sorry for his waiter Jim, who is busy serving many tables.

  Waiting Lines

Some time later, Busy Eats finds that it is operating 100% full at a profit of $80,000 per year. They often have a 20 minute waiting line. Their first choice would be to expand the restaurant, but that would require closing for six months, a big loss of revenue. While they plan a bigger restaurant nearby, they raise the price of meals 3%. This pushes 6% of their business away, the line disappears, and they operate at 98% capacity with a profit of $90,700 per year. The customers who continue at Busy Eats are willing to pay more for the great food and atmosphere but may not eat there quite as often.

Busy Eats raised prices only 3% because they wanted to keep as many customers as possible. Their customers are sensitive to price, even for great food.

Most customers appreciate the shorter lines more than they dislike the higher prices. Before, they lost time waiting or they stayed away; now they pay more. Jim the waiter gets an automatic 1.5% raise based on the higher meal price and tips; his excellent skills are worth more in a busy restaurant. The "market" was telling Busy Eats to raise its price.

The supply of meals at Busy Eats was less than its customers (the market) wanted. It can charge more and deliver its service with short lines and more profit, instead of rationing its meals by having long lines. Its high profits at this location helps the owners to get investments for their next location.

  Profitable Changes

Quiet Time is looking for ways to make a profit. It lowers its prices and changes the menu. It gets some of the customers who would have eaten at Busy Eats. It manages to be 70% full with lower prices and lower costs, making $20,000 in profit each year. That saves the restaurant and restores its value to the owners. The owners then have some time to try other things that would be more appealing to customers.

The supply of meals at Quiet Time was more than the market wanted. This told Quiet Time to make its meals less expensive and/or more desirable.

AntiProfit complains that Busy Eats is making too much profit after raising its price. He would prefer that it serve the community and himself better by lowering prices so that he could eat there more often. AntiProfit says Quiet Time is a good member of the community, offering solid food at a newly lowered price, and it is a quieter place to eat.

AntiProfit has things backwards. The price at Busy Eats is higher because of higher demand for its meals. The value of its service produces the higher prices and profit. It charges more because it wants to make higher salaries and returns on its investment. It deserves a raise for its good management.

Busy Eats couldn't serve many more customers even if it charged less. It hopes to serve many more customers at a second location, where it can make even more profit at the original, lower price.

The price at Quiet Time is lower because people aren't as happy with its offerings. Quiet Time is not full and could serve more meals, so raising prices would be a mistake. It makes a smaller profit because it is inefficient, not because it is a better member of the community. It employs fewer waiters and cooks than it would if it were more successful delivering what people want.

  The Cost of Profit

How much could a Busy Eats customer save if Busy Eats "gave back" its profit?

Busy Eats is just worth the owner's investment at 70% full, making $20,000 profit per year. That is the level where the owners don't lose the money they spent to set up the restaurant. Let's give them that.

Compare this to the $80,000 profit per year when Busy Eats is 100% full serving $500,000 in meals per year. The extra $60,000 profit is 12% of the meal price. So, Busy Eats could "give back" that profit by lowering the price of a $15 meal by $1.80, down to $13.20.

         Full     Sales   Profit   Extra  Extra
                                   Profit   Pct
Just OK   70%  $350,000  $20,000  $     0    0%
Full     100%  $500,000  $80,000  $60,000   12%
Pricey    98%  $504,700  $90,700  $70,700   14%

The Busy Eats customer is not paying much toward profits to eat at a great restaurant. Jim The Waiter actually makes more money in 15% tips on each meal than the restaurant makes toward the extra $60,000 profit.

As noted before, Busy Eats and its customers are all better off when the $15 meal price is raised 3% to $15.45. The waiting line disappears, the profit goes up to $90,700 at 98% full, and the owners want to open more restaurants, hire more staff, and serve more people.
 

Restaurant Financial Model

Below is the financial model for the Busy Eats and Quiet Time restaurants. I am not a restaurant expert. These figures may be different for an actual restaurant, but they are consistent about profit and expenses.

As Busy Eats sells more meals, it spends more on groceries, waiters, cooks, waste disposal, dishwashing, and bonuses, yielding 40% profit on meals served. Busy Eats has to pay fixed expenses like rent, electricity, bookkeeping, and advertising. Anything left over is the owner's share, the overall net profit.

I estimated the total business value of Busy Eats at 10 times yearly profits. A real value would depend on other risks and benefits, and might be between 5 and 15 times yearly profits.

See the Excel Spreadsheet for these figures


(Money in 1,000's)  Break                
                     Even           OK      Success
                    -----           --      -------
Maximum Sales        $500         $500         $500
How Full?       60%   300    70%   350    95%   475
Meals Expense   60%  -180    60%  -210    60%  -285
Meals Profit    40%   120    40%   140    40%   190
Price Increase          0            0            0
Fixed Expense        -120         -120         -120
Net Profit              0           20           70
                                              
                     Full         Pricey       
                     ----         ------
Maximum Sales        $500         $500
How Full?      100%   500    98%   490
Meals Expense   60%  -300    60%  -294
Meals Profit    40%   200    40%   196
Price Increase          0     3%    14.7
Fixed Expense        -120         -120
Net Profit             80           90.7


An Owner/Operator

Busy Eats illustrates a typical business that combines investments with operations. The owner buys the equipment, rents the building, and organizes the business. Up-front payments (investments) are necessary.

A promise to pay suppliers after everthing is running is not enough. The owner or a trusted manager supplies the plan for Busy Eats, hires the staff, and starts things working. Any profits from Busy Eats pays the owner for running and creating the business. He risks losing his setup money, or more, if Busy Eats fails.

The owner of Busy Eats combines his investment with his intelligence, experience, work, and the work of employees to deliver a service to customers. Any profit is what the owner is paid for his current work and for supplying the investment that created the restaurant.

Jim The Waiter combines his abilities and a small investment in work clothes to deliver a service to Busy Eats and to customers. Busy Eats pays him an hourly wage and his customers pay him in tips for his effort. His profit from working is what remains after some expenses.

Profit is not being stolen from employees or customers. It is the name for the useable part of each person's pay for the services and investment he provides, after subtracting work related expenses.
 

An Investor

An Investor buys stocks, bonds, commodities (like soybeans, copper, or oil), or all or part of businesses, with the intent to be paid, to make a profit. We could just as well talk about a group of people or a business buying these things.

AntiProfit sees an Investor as the pure evil of Capitalism. The investor wants to make a profit, to be paid for doing absolutely nothing, just by buying something and owning it for a while.

Actually, buying business equipment and structure supports making things. Making things is what gives us tools, houses, appliances, cars, and everything manufactured. Natural resources are also manufactured. Coal, concrete, iron ore, and wood must be mined, processed, and shaped to be useful.

Manufacturing, transportation, and accounting require tools, buildings, desks, and the entire infrastructure of business. Somebody has to provide the intelligence and resources (capital) to organize and build the infrastructure to do these things.

Busy Eats was designed and constructed before it could serve meals. It had to operate while losing money during the time that it was building a base of customers.

The owners supplied the investment. They made money for themselves if they did it right, or lost money if they did it wrong. They had to have knowledge and faith in themselves. They needed the possibility of a big profit to risk their money on something that might go wrong. There are many examples, such as Quiet Times where things did go wrong, and the owners invested their money only to lose it or barely get it back.

AntiProfit is mistaken that investing is "doing nothing" and getting paid for it. The investor must do useful things to earn money, then save those earnings, then invest that money at risk. The investor gets his money back if everything goes OK. He is paid for his foresight and risk If things go well. He loses some or all of his money if something goes wrong.
 

Safe and Risky Investing

Some investments seem safe. Why should investors be paid for buying and holding a sure thing?

The investors in Busy Eats have a steady business after 3 years. They spent $200,000 to start it, and it is now worth $850,000. That is based on a profit of between $80,000 to $90,000 each year. New investors are willing to spend that much to earn a 10% return on an investment that increases with inflation.

The new investors are not "parasites" on the value produced by the employees of Busy Eats. The employees have always been paid for their work. The new investors are buying the profits that are due to the original owners for starting and establishing Busy Eats. The original owners organized and provided jobs; they are not "stealing profits" from the employees.

The new investors are voluntarily paying $850,000 for a business that cost $200,000 to start. They do not feel robbed. They are happy to buy a business that earns 10% plus inflation. But, there is always some risk, and they will pay attention to keep good management and adapt to their customer's preferences.

The original owners have made $650,000 above their investment of $200,000. After a bottle of wine and smiles all around, they are likely to use this "capital" to start more restaurants.

This shows a pattern in investing and life. Entrepreneurs (high risk/reward investor/operators) start businesses and establish them as being stable. They often sell these businesses to managing investors (lower risk/reward investors) who are content with managing businesses for profit.

Entrepreneurs do something new using their own money and money from people who trust them personally. Managing investors use money from banks and stockholders who trust mostly in the documented performance of proven businesses. Each type of investor is matching risk against return. All investment is done at risk.

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To commentor Ted S.: Thanks for adding your experience.

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Free Markets, Businesses, and Crony Capitalism
03/23/10 - The Common Room by Headmistress, Zookeeper

This post kindly links here, and provides an anecdote about a woman who felt used books are improperly sold at market value, rather than what she imagined as a reasonable price.

Headmistress points out "There is nothing inherently immoral about profiting from needs".

May 31, 2009

Stimulus Shrinks Economy

Stimulus Package Shrinks Economy, Destroys Private Sector Jobs
05/31/09 - OpenMarket by Hans Bader

This is only the last part:

[edited] A provision in the stimulus package that blocked a mere 97 Mexican truckers from U.S. roads "caused Mexico to retaliate with tariffs on 90 goods affecting $2.4 billion in U.S. trade", destroying 40,000 American jobs.

The vague "buy American" provisions of the stimulus, doing little to promote purchases of U.S. products, managed to ignite a trade war with Canada.

Obama's policies echo those of Herbert Hoover, who helped spawn the Great Depression through his protectionism and tax increases.

One of Obama's advisers admits that “the barrage of tax increases proposed in President Barack Obama’s budget could kill any chance of an early and sustained recovery.” Even the Washington Post, which endorsed Obama and once supported his auto bailouts, now has soured on them and their waste of taxpayer money.

Access vs Honest Reporting

An Open Letter to Amnesty International
05/29/09 - National Review by Michael Rubin

[edited] Eason Jordan is the chief news executive at CNN. After the start of Operation Iraqi Freedom, he wrote The News We Kept to Ourselves about the balance between access and honest reporting. That balance affects many other fields as well. Autocratic regimes control visas (access) to influence reporting and other activities.

Journalists report from southern Lebanon under Hezbollah's eye, and from Gaza under the control of Hamas minders. Their reporting is followed. Crossing certain lines is a matter of life-and-death.

Untenured academics need access to country-based resources for their study of Iran, Chechnya, North Korea, or China. They will not acquire visas should their writing displease those governments. Without visas, they cannot do more research to compete for tenure.

The same is true for human-rights organizations. Their pronouncements are often taken at face-value by news outlets. In reality, they are intensely compromised organizations, often putting organizational interests above mission.

Fathi El Jahmi was Libya's most prominent dissident. He died this week while detained at the Tripoli Medical Centre since July 2007. His brother Mohamed El Jahmi wrote to Irene Khan, secretary general of Amnesty International. He asks whether Amnesty's desire to operate inside Libya led it to self-censor criticism of El Jahmi's detention and death.

Mohamed El Jahmi wrote:

[excerpt] Your organization received independent confirmation that Fathi was in very bad condition. While Fathi was in Jordan, Amnesty and other organizations were denied access to Fathi. Qadhafi’s regime has consistently objected to releasing Fathi’s medical record, why would it consider Amnesty’s gentle request now?.

For many months, the Qadhafi regime kept your organization neutralized – you couldn’t issue a press release because the regime was holding the access carrot in front of your eyes. You got your access and betrayed Fathi.

May 30, 2009

Obama and Sotomayor Are Anti-Gun

Sotomayor is Obama’s End Run on the Second Amendment
05/29/09 - Pajamas Media by Bob Owens

The Constitution protects your right to own guns. Sorry, Obama and Sotomayor interpret it as not applying to the individual States. This is the beauty of having a law professor as President.

[edited] The recent landmark case District of Columbia v. Heller put an end to decades of argument about the Second Amendment. The Supreme Court rejected 5-4 the collectivist interpretation favored by gun control advocates such as President Obama.

The Court found that the Second Amendment protects the right of citizens to own firearms for private use; that this is an individual right predating the Constitution; and that its authority is tied directly to the natural right of self-defense.

Six months after Heller, Sotomayor issued an opinion in Maloney v. Cuomo that the protections of the Second Amendment do not apply to the states. She found that your city or state can ban all guns and disarm you.

Such an opinion seems to fly directly in the face of Heller. This exposes Sotomayor as an anti-gun radical who believes that you have no right to own a firearm, even for the most basic right of defending your family in your own home.

The Supreme Court will hear an appeal of Maloney on June 26. Sotomayor would almost certainly have to recuse herself from Maloney if confirmed. But her views, so attractive to an anti-gun President, would be applied to similar cases appealed to the Court.

Obama was a director of the Joyce Foundation when it attempted to corrupt Second Amendment legal scholarship and undermine the decision-making processes of the Supreme Court. Only a concerted effort by America’s gun owners may keep Obama from appointing an anti-gun, activist judge to the Court.

May 29, 2009

First, Let's Pay All the Lawyers

A Stimulus You Can Believe In
05/29/09 - Overlawyered by Ted Frank

Opportunistic lawsuits are expensive for us all.

[edited] As I recently testified to Congress, I have formed a conservative estimate from these economic studies. Excessive litigation costs the economy $600 to $900 billion a year. The vast majority of this is simply wealth destruction. That is 4% to 6% of GNP, a tort (litigation for injury) tax of $8,000 to $12,000 a year for an average family of four.

May 28, 2009

Homeopathic Waterboarding (smile)

Homeopathic Waterboarding
05/28/09 - Throckmorton's Other Signs

The whole post is even funnier.

[edited] Waterboarding causes an intense feeling of distress and panic. Much like using a Nettie pot, I found out. With one of these, much hyped by Oprah, you twist your head back and pour water into your nose while it spouts out the other side, and down your throat and out your nose. This first caused much dread, panic, and a bit of suffocation.

When I first did this to treat my sinus infection, I would have given up my social security number and ATM pin to not have to do it again.

Now I pretty much waterboard myself whenever I have sinus problems.

May 25, 2009

Medical Rationing Details

How Will Medical Rationing Occur?
05/24/09 - MDOD by 911DOC

Dr. JN is a board certified Neurologist dealing with a flunky to get an MRI imaging test approved.

[edited] A 44 year old Rwandan woman with controlled HIV developed back pain with radiation down both legs. Bed rest and Advil don't work.

MRI Rejected by Medicaid "Not enough documentation, does not meet criteria". Call the MD line. Dr. X calls back, claims that he is a neurologist. "You're just too lazy to prescribe Advil, is that it? Or maybe you're just a chickenshit who doesn't want to get sued. You know it's nothing". Refused.

In 33 years out of school, no one has ever talked to me like that, least of all another physician.

Resubmitted with extensive documentation of infection risk in African patients with poor cellular immunity. Rejected.

Called again. Now they say, if I send her to a specialist and the specialist orders the MRI they'll do it. I AM a specialist.

5 weeks later, it's approved and finds a big spinal abscess, likely TB, cultures pending.

--------------
Can I Get Prior-Authorization To Kick Your Ass?
04/29/09 - MDOD by Lofty Zahari

[edited] Let me tell you how it usually goes when I try to get a wonderful, newer drug approved for my patients. I love Byetta and prescribe a ton of it. It is the only commonly-used drug for type 2 diabetes that lowers glucose AND helps patients lose weight. It often requires pre-approval from insurance carriers.

Dr. Lofty: Hi, I'm calling to get prior approval for Byetta for my patient.

CSR: And your question is?

Dr. Lofty: My question is, what information do you need to get this drug approved for my patient?

CSR: Yes (looks up questions to ask under 'Byetta protocol'). So, why does this patient need Byetta?

Dr. Lofty: Because they have gained 20 pounds over the past year on Actos and glyburide and in my experience I can get this patient's hemoglobin A1c down about 1% with about 20 pounds of weight loss using Byetta, and get them off of these other drugs.

CSR: I see. And what is the medical justification?

Dr. Lofty: I just told you the medical justification.

CSR: Yes, well, I'll need to fax over a two-page prior authorization form that will need to be filled out completely along with the last three chart notes documenting failure to achieve control with....

[Now, into the TWILIGHT ZONE, where we are magically free of social convention and can say what we wished we could say to one another ... ]

Dr. Lofty: Hey f---head with your G.E.D. diploma hanging on your cubicle wall, I went to f---ing medical school for four years, did three years of residency training plus a chief resident year, and have been practicing diabetes almost exclusively for ten years. My experience tells me this patient needs Byetta and I want him to have it NOW! Losing weight and shrinking the waist probably reduces cardiovascular risk in patients with type 2 diabetes.

CSR: Sir, we really don't give a flying f--- if your patient loses weight. We would prefer he or she remain on the cheaper, generic drugs that they are currently taking.

Dr. Lofty: Well, the patient sure would feel better in the long run losing twenty pounds and losing about 2 gallons of fluid from his legs.

CSR: Again, don't give a shit about this patient's quality of life. Too expensive to use this drug. This person won't be on our plan in two years, so we could give a rat's ass whether or not they lose weight or feel better. They'll be someone else's problem in two years.

--------------
Lateral Boomerangs
05/24/09 - Throckmorton's Other Signs by Throckmorton

Medicare makes the rules and people play the rules.

[edited] Medicare has a whole bunch of diagnoses that it will not pay for if a patient is discharged and readmitted within a short period of time. Nursing homes and extended care facilities are decreasing in number and want nothing to do with complicated patients, because of lawsuits and threats of lawsuits. Home care is the only option for patients that do not meet Medicare admission criteria and can't get into an extended care faclility. So, many go home and then need to be re-admitted.

The practical answer is to re-admit them at another hospital. A so-called "lateral".

A lot of folks went away for the holiday weekend, so they took grandma to the hospital! She was there 2 weeks ago for COPD breathing problems. The ER must admit her, but then the shell game starts to do the "lateral". Welcome to the world of federally managed healthcare.

+ + + + +

Why Test? You Are Already in the Hospital
It seems that Medicare wants to cut down on unneeded testing. The answer: Don't give the test at all if the patient is in the hospital. That will do it!

May 23, 2009

Efficiency Breakthrough: Small Cars With Small Engines

Fuel efficiency is an expensive option. Most of it comes from cars that are smaller, lighter, less powerful, and more dangerous in a crash.

Miles/gallon "mpg" is misleading. Gallons used per 100 miles "GP100" is a better indicator of savings. Going from 20 to 25 mpg (from 5 to 4 GP100) saves the same amount of gasoline as going from 25 mpg to 33.3 mpg (from 4 to 3 GP100).

To save an additional 1 gallon/100 miles, the car would need to get 50 mpg, a very difficult engineering challenge at high cost.

Dear Barack: Does your Chrysler 300C get 35.5 MPG?
05/22/09 - DirectorBlue.Blogspot.com
(Via RiehlWorldView)

From Car and Driver, May 2009 by Steve Siler and Mike Dushane:

[edited] Obama's proposed requirement raises fuel economy standards (CAFE) about 5% each year until 2016.

Trucks must go from 23 to 30 mpg (30% better miles per gallon), and passenger cars must go from 27.5 to 39 mpg (42% better), to achieve 35.5 mpg averaged overall.

Senators say these goals have been met in Europe. But, car for car, European vehicles aren't much more efficient than current US vehicles.

Take the Ford Focus sedan, a car that is about the same size in the US and in Europe.

  • The US basic Focus sedan costs $15,000, has a 140 hp engine, and is rated at 28 mpg combined by the EPA.
  • The German basic Focus sedan costs $20,000 (plus 19% tax!), has only a 79 hp engine, and would be rated at 30 mpg combined by the EPA (based on usual differences between US and EU test numbers).
Europeans pay $5,000 more for 56% of the power, and gain 7% fuel economy (the car travels 7% farther on a gallon of gas).

So, why is Europe's fleet so much more efficient overall? Europeans buy much smaller cars.

The Focus is one of the tinier mass-market cars sold in the US today, but it is a family car in Europe. The average European buys a car a few sizes smaller than a Focus. About one-half of Europeans buy diesels, which consume around 30% less fuel. Europeans have parking space limitations and small roads. If they drove the long distances we do, they likely would drive bigger cars, as we do.

Engineering options to meet the proposed requirements are costly.

  • Diesel engines led the efficiency revolution in Europe, but they are dirty. New particulate limits require thousands of dollars in extra costs for NASA-level catalytic converters.
  • Hybrid technology increases efficiency 30%, not the required 35%, and costs $4,000 - $10,000 according to vehicle size.
  • The GM Volt has an extended-range electric powertrain. GM does not give a cost, but industry sources estimate $10,000 more for a small car, with higher costs proportional to vehicle size.
  • Lightweight materials can help a few percent, but they are already in use and greater use would yield diminishing returns and massive cost.

The Obama administration estimates $1,300 more per car to meet mileage goals. This is absurd. Consumers would need to pay at least that AND move down a few vehicle sizes.

General Motors Vice Chairman Bob Lutz predicts that the new CAFE standards will increase car prices by $4,000 - $10,000 per vehicle, averaging $6,000.

(Car and Driver continued ...)

Will US consumers buy these smaller cars?

The few such vehicles available today don't sell in large quantities because of their small size, poor performance, and high prices.

Sales of the Toyota Prius and other hybrids briefly shot up when gas cost $4 a gallon, but sales dropped with falling gas prices. Prius sales fell so much, beyond the overall declining market, that Toyota last year halted construction of a Prius factory in Mississippi. The best-selling vehicles in the US this year are the Ford F-150 and Chevrolet Silverado pickup trucks. Nobody is stopping these people from purchasing a Prius instead.

The Obama administration claims the new requirements will save 1.8 billion barrels of oil over seven years (0.26 bbl/year). This assumes that people will want to buy new, expensive, tiny cars. If people instead purchase bigger, cheaper, used cars, there will be no reduction in oil consumption. Those used cars are the same "guzzlers" we are driving today.

Worse, the auto industry will continue to shrink from a decrease in new-car sales at higher prices.


How Much Oil and Money Will Be Saved?

According to US Government Energy statistics, US oil consumption for 2007 was 7.55 bbl (billion barrels) (20.68 million barrels/day). The 70% used for transportation was 5.29 bbl.

The claimed savings from stricter CAFE requiremnts is 0.26 bbl/year. That would save 4.9% of transportation oil (3.5% of all oil).

Here are the personal savings for 15,000 miles/year with gasoline at $3/gallon.

    Auto Efficiency, Fuel Use, and Present Value


  Miles       Price of         Discount
  /year       Gasoline           Rate
 15,000          $3.00           10%

         Gal      Fuel    Gal     Cash     10 Yr
 MPG    Used      Cost   Saved   Saved     Value
 ---    ----    ------   -----   -----    ------
27.5     545    $1,636      0     $  0    $    0
30.0     500    $1,500     45     $136    $  838
35.0     429    $1,286    117     $351    $2,155
39.0     385    $1,154    161     $483    $2,965

Excel spreadsheet for the above figures

You save 161 gal and $483 yearly if you drive 15,000 miles and increase efficiency from 27.5 to 39.0 mpg, pricing gasoline at $3/gal.

The "10 Year Value" is what 10 years of savings are worth to you today. Saving $483 each year for 10 years at 39 mpg totals $4,830. You must pay today for the car and its technology to get savings spread out in the future. These savings are worth $2,965 to you today, if you value the use of your money at 10%/year.

Say you are purchasing a car with a 10% auto loan. Paying $2,965 more for greater efficiency would just balance the savings on gas. You would save $4,830 in gas over time, but would also pay that amount in increased purchase price and financing costs.

What if you paid $5,000 more as in Germany now, and as conservatively predicted by Bob Lutz? The fuel savings are worth $2,965 to you, so you would lose $2,035 on the deal.

We must hope that:

  • The increased cost of the car is small
  • The claimed efficiency is true
  • There are no increased expenses and inconveniences for repairing or using the new technology
  • Used-car prices will hold up if you won't be keeping the car for the full 10 years.

The Obama adminstration expects to save .026 bbl of oil yearly, which I assume means gasoline. There are 42 gallons per barrel. That is 10.92 BGal of gas. If each new car saves 161 gallons/year, this would require replacing 68 million cars, or a smaller number of cars and trucks. Trucks usually travel more miles each year than autos.

So far in 2009, cars and light trucks together are selling at the rate of about 10 million/year. So, Obama's savings would require selling roughly 5 years of total car and light truck sales as efficient, expensive, new technology vehicles. This seems unreasonable to me, and needs a detailed explanation.

Safety

These results are what you will get after paying more for a smaller, less powerful car with lower safety. Smaller, lighter cars produce more deaths in auto accidents. This doesn't seem to be included in the government's considerations.

Obama’s new cars will cost more, and might kill you
5/21/09 - Louisville City Hall Examiner by Thomas McAdam

Since CAFE passed in 1975, smaller cars have killed almost 50,000 more people than otherwise would have died on the roads, according to the National Highway Traffic Safety Administration (NHTSA).

A number of studies have documented the lethal consequences of requiring carmakers to improve fuel standards. [This results from making the cars lighter. -ag].


Gallons per 100 Miles

Buy an S.U.V., Save the Planet
06/02/2009 - Freakonomics by Eric A. Morris
[edited] We can improve fuel economy not through the onerous task of developing next-generation lithium-ion batteries but simply by getting people behind the wheels of more efficient SUV’s.

Upgrading an inefficient Range Rover SUV at 14 mpg to a more efficient RAV4 SUV at 24 mpg would save a lot of fuel. Actually, more fuel than switching from the RAV4 to the most fuel-efficient car on the market, the 2009 Toyota Prius at 46 mpg.

We have a policy option that is almost painless. Show car buyers the Gal/100 Miles figures instead of mpg. To be fair, car window stickers currently show annual estimated fuel cost. But the mpg figure takes center stage, much as it does throughout our society. Changing window stickers seems a lot easier than developing new generations of ultra-lightweight car body materials, and it could have a significant impact.

Moving SUV owners into the Prius is going to be a struggle. We should be happy if the public chooses more efficient SUV's, because the savings are still great. Consider driving 15,000 miles per year.

        Miles    Gal  /     Gal    Diff
         /Gal  100 Miles   Used   Saved
   
Rover     14      7.14    1,071 
Rav4      24      4.17      625     446
Prius     46      2.17      326     299

Let people motivate themselves by fuel savings within the category of car which they prefer. Don't force car purchases through mandates and tax policy. Show the savings and let consumers make the tradeoff between initial cost and future savings.

+ + + + +

A Car Wreck Made in Washington
CAFE standards have been used to protect auto unions, regardless of efficiency.

All opinions about automobiles

------------
Correction: The first version of this post showed incorrect data for two days based on 30 mpg rather than the correct 39 mpg claimed efficiency.

May 21, 2009

Did You Love "Life After People" ?

Movie Reveals Truth About Environmentalism
05/18/09 - PajamasMedia by Andrew Klavan

... then you will love the new "The Day The Earth Stood Still".

[edited] The moviemakers as environmentalists worship Earth as a god, like the savages of old. They believe it’s worth hobbling civilization, at the very least, and killing the human race if it will save the precious Earth from destruction.

But why? What’s so great about the earth? It’s just a rock floating in space, after all. The only really interesting thing about it is that it happens to support life - and the only thing that makes life itself interesting is the consciousness capable of perceiving it.

That’s us, you environmental boneheads! The majesty of the whale, the grace of the leopard, the beauty of the sunset, even the blue of the sky - none of these even exists outside the imagination of man. And it’s that imagination that expresses itself, not just in the concertos of Bach and the plays of Shakespeare, but in our cities and factories and machines and systems of trade - in civilization itself.

Let’s conserve and replenish our natural resources for sure so we can keep building what we build. But it profits us nothing to save the world if we lose the achievements of humanity.

+ + + + +
A discussion of "Life After People"

May 20, 2009

The Will to Have Efficient Cars

How Will You Spend Your $2,800?
05/20/09 - CafeHayek by Don Boudreaux

[edited] President Obama has no experience as an entrepreneur or in the automotive industry, but has supposedly designed fuel-efficiency standards that he assures us will save the average car buyer $2,800 over the life of the vehicle.

No one in Detroit, Britain, Japan, Germany, Korea, Sweden, Italy, or France, and no one with decades of experience producing and selling automobiles has yet devised vehicles that are so obviously attractive as the ones now promised to us by the Obama administration.

We can admire Obama for freely offering his idea to the public. If his idea is workable, he could have earned billions by licensing his idea to auto companies. We are certainly lucky that he is simply forcing us to use his idea without charging for it.

+ + + + +

Magic Power
There seems to be a leftist belief that technologists are holding back the cheap, efficient world that they could deliver, if they would just stop being grasping and lazy. Why don't they just do the math and make everything work faster and better? Could the nerds give us cheap power if they wanted to?

Efficiency Breakthrough: Small Cars With Small Engines
The Obama administration estimates paying $1,300 more per car to meet mileage goals. This is absurd. Consumers would need to pay more AND move down a few vehicle sizes. See the European equivalents, engineering considerations, and the financing.

May 6, 2009

Good Guns Don't Make News

Observational Bias in Mass-Shooting Stories
05/06/09 - ChicagoBoyz by Shannon Love

[edited] Why do we spend so much money on fire proofing buildings when we seem to have so few major fires?

Instapundit links to a news story in which an armed college student prevented a mass killing. This story appeared only on the website of a local TV station.

There are no news stories about crimes that didn't happen because gun owners prevented them. This creates a one-sided distortion about the tradeoffs of having an armed citizenry. People only see the negative events caused by armed citizens, never the many, many positive events that don't make the news.

No one cares if planes land safely or if building don't burn down. When an armed citizen prevents a major crime, it is only local news. When the prospect of encountering an armed citizen causes a criminal to not attempt a crime, it doesn�t make news anywhere.

The "gun control" debate boils down to arguments between people who understand this distortion and those who don't.

May 5, 2009

Treasury Recalls All Dollars (smile)

Treasury Issues Emergency Recall of All U.S. Dollars
05/04/09 - Reason by Katherine Mangu-Ward

See the short video by The Onion. Very funny, if it doesn't become true. "Just put all of your money into the plastic bag and mail it in. Don't worry, in time you will earn it back."

Actions by the Federal Reserve that are somewhat similar.

Freedom Supports Our Humanity

Brooks channels Hayek
05/05/09 - CafeHayek by Russell Roberts

[edited] The classical liberal prescription for the good life is not about making as much money as possible. It's about the freedom to choose. It's about voluntary rather than coercive solutions, decentralized rather than centralized solutions, bottom-up solutions that are the result of many actions and actors rather than top-down solutions by experts.

Unfortunately, economists, Republicans, and columnists often use "the market" to mean only economic freedom. Most people take it to mean the stock market, or at most the monetary parts of our lives. (This seems to promote economics at the expense of community. -AG)

People ask how the poor can possibly survive if there is more liberty? Or they argue that the market "delivers the goods" but produces inequality. Some respond that economic freedom does indeed help the poor. They're right, but that doesn't comfort the skeptic who is worried about today's poor.

Freedom doesn't mean poor people starving. Freedom means that the government doesn't try to solve the problem of poverty, but rather it leaves the door open to voluntary community rather than coerced community.

Pocketbook issues are important, but they don't inspire. Freedom is important not because it makes us rich, but because it makes our lives more meaningful. Freedom does let us prosper, and it also lets us express what is important about our humanity. Top down approaches deaden that humanity.

May 3, 2009

Bombing Japan Was Not a War Crime

War Criminals and The True Story of the Atomic Bombs
05/01/09 - Pajamas TV by Bill Whittle (video 17 min)

( Wait through the one minute PJTV introduction )

Bill Whittle speaks fast, clearly, and makes his points. War is life versus life. Japan was led by a fanatic military and supported by a civilian religious subservience to the Emperor of Japan. The Japanese military had promised the Emperor that 20 million kamakase civilians would repel the Americans with their lives.

US Atomic weapons killed over 200,000 Japanese military and civilians. Conventional weapons had aleady killed more. Like today's terrorists, Japanese military factories and installations were dispersed among the civilian population.

A prolonged war would have killed millions on both sides. The Japanese military was willing to make this sacrifice, and admitted this later. Atomic weapons convinced the Emperor that peace was the better option, and saved those lives.

Consider the circumstances, the will of Japan, their military ruling party and philosophy, and the careful warnings made by the US military. The use of atomic weapons was not a war crime.

Personal Experience of Terrorism

Storm Windows
05/02/09 - Cara Ellison

An experience of the 9/11/2001 attack on New York. An excerpt.

That was it. Everything was gone.

He knew this on some instinctive level, though he had no time to really understand what that meant. He rolled from underneath an SUV, jelly-legs, and looked around.

The building would not stop collapsing. It came down, then the giant clouds of dust, coffee cups, motherboards, phones, people, a burning Pompeii in the sky. Now the air was full of dust lighter than air, floating on the currents. When he rubbed his eyes, they stung. He tasted gritty metal in his mouth, and he spat on the ground.
. . .
It was all gone. His wife. His job. He tried to wash off the dust. The dust was in his nose, in the seashell curves of his ear, between his teeth, under his fingernails, in his hair. He lifted his face to the stream of water.

May 1, 2009

A Budget to Infinity, and Beyond

Obama Victory on 2010 Budget
04/29/09 - MarketWatch by Robert Schroeder

Democrats have repealed Obama's middle class tax cut, effective just after the November 2010 elections.

[quotes are edited]

The budget resolution preserves Obama's domestic priorities and cuts the yearly federal budget deficit (yearly borrowing) by almost two-thirds in five years.

While it would cut the deficit in the short term, the budget would also increase deficits over the next 10 years by more than $2 trillion ($2,000 billion).

"More than $2,000 billion" is an error. The deficit will increase by that much just in 2009. The actual figure is about $10,700 billion over the next 11 years, from CBO estimates of past and future deficits graphed below. That is $10.7 trillion, 75% of the $14.3 trillion total US production in 2008.

The 2007 deficit was $168 billion under Bush. The 2008 deficit was about $500 billion (3 times larger), in part due to a Bush stimulus package. Did you notice the improvement from that stimulus? There was not much improvement, but the money did disappear.

The 2009 deficit was crafted by Democrats in control of Congress, and is now vastly increased by Obama's policies. The 2009 deficit is going to be about $1,850 billion ($1.85 trillion), 3.7 times the 2008 Bush deficit, and 11 times the 2007 Bush deficit.

The following graph from the Washington Post presents Congressional Budget Office (CBO) data on past and projected deficits. The Heritage Foundation compares this spending by Bush and Obama.

wapoobamabudget1 at Washington Post

After 5 years of accumulating debt, a two-thirds reduction would make the yearly deficit $615 billion. Private estimates are higher. That is a "reduction" to a yearly level that is more than Bush's splurge. Then, the yearly deficit increases even according to Obama's estimates.

The tax burden goes up with all government spending. A deficit represents a delay in collecting that tax, like spending on a credit card. The things that government buys today are taken out of what you can buy tomorrow.

Bush spent to "save the economy". That splurge of spending in each of two years is being multiplied 3.7 times in 2009, and the future "cut" is from this level of $1,850 billion.

The bill pares back some of Obama's initiatives. For example, it allows his $400/worker  ($800/couple) tax cuts to expire at the end of 2010.

Obama's "tax cut for 95% of Americans" is ending, after a run of two years, just after the 2010 elections. Obama's priorities make that tax rebate unsustainable. It was sustainable only as a promise before election.

House Republican Leader John Boehner correctly sums it up:

This bill spends an awful lot of money, it raises a lot of taxes, and it puts all of this debt on the backs of our kids and our grandkids.

Don't worry, you will get a chance to pay off some of this debt. It won't all go to your children. (smile)

The House resolution includes a "pay as you go" requirement for four bills later this year, about the alternative minimum tax, Medicare payments to doctors, adjusting the estate tax, and extending middle-class tax cuts.

"Pay as you go" means that Congress is promising now to raise taxes to pay for any new spending. The "rich" top 5% (above $150,000 incomes) paid $613 billion in 2006 federal income taxes. Will they be made to pay 2.6 times that amount, or will the middle class also pay for these dramatic spending increases? I have faith in the middle class. (smile)

+ + + + +

2006 Tax Comparisons
See what you, your neighbor, and the rich guy are already paying in income tax.

The Real Tax Burden
The amount of tax that a government imposes is the amount it spends. The timing and amount of tax collections is merely finance.

Econ 201: The Myth of the Economic Multiplier
Government spending doesn't multiply anything. It takes resources from taxpayers and applies them to government projects. You get a bridge or some paperwork, that is it.