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Jul 11, 2008

College is an Expensive IQ Test

They Let You Pay Them. It Doesn't Mean They Are Worth It.

The law says that a company cannot give an employment test unless it has been shown to be non-discriminatory in effect. That means it doesn't screen out people of color at a different effective rate than white people.

So, employers don't create their own tests or use standardized tests. Interviewers talk randomly about whatever they want, using personal judgment to decide if the candidate is "a good match". This is supposed to be less discriminatory!

If a new hire does not succeed, his degree from a "good school" provides protection for the manager who hired him.

Big Boss: I hear that Jim isn't working out. You hired him. How did that happen?
Little Boss: Jim had a degree from a good school. How could I know?


Disparate But Not Serious
05/18/07 - Wall St Journal by James Taranto

What most professional jobs require is basic intellectual aptitude. And what has changed since the 1970s is that the court has developed a body of law that prevents employers from directly screening for such aptitude.

The landmark case was Griggs v. Duke Power Co. (1971). A black coal miner claimed discrimination because his employer required a high-school diploma and an intelligence test as prerequisites for promotion to a more skilled position. The court ruled 8-0 in the miner's favor. "Good intent or absence of discriminatory intent does not redeem employment procedures or testing mechanisms that operate as 'built-in headwinds' for minority groups," Chief Justice Warren Burger wrote.

This became known as the "disparate impact" test, and it applies only in employment law. Colleges and universities remain free to use aptitude tests, and elite institutions in particular lean heavily on exams such as the SAT in deciding whom to admit. For a prospective employee, obtaining a college degree is a very expensive way of showing that he has, in effect, passed an IQ test.

Instead of facing an imperfect hiring exam, there is a court approved path through college that happens to cost $100,000 and 4 years of full-time study. Even then, the benefit for the applicant is unknown, except for a group of elite schools with even higher fees and great reputations.

In college at the University of Chicago, I talked to a graduate student in Physics. He had overheard some shocking comments between two professors.
Professor A: What is the quality of the new physics grad students?
Professor B: One or two look promising. The rest should find something that they are good at.

U.Chicago had a nationally recognized physics department. A student had to be dedicated to physics study and have high grades and recommendations to be admitted to the program. Yet, their professors thought most of them were in the wrong place and weren't good enough for careers in physics!

We would like to think that institutions within our society are valuable to us. I'm sad to report that they are in it for themselves. You can't assume that what you are getting is valuable and efficient just because you are buying their product.

A student thinks that his college degree is valuable to future employers. It is, but only as an indicator of his intelligence. His college professors don't train students for careers, and most businesses have the attitude "Forget what you learned in school. This is the real world."

Let's be smart enough to allow people and businesses to talk to each other using any criteria they want, especially for hiring. If a person meets discrimination at one employer, then there are other employers. If a person meets discrimination at ALL employers, then no court order is going to help. It certainly doesn't help to require paying $100,000 and 4 years to schools so the employers will not be sued for unintended discrimination. That is court-required discrimination against the non-rich.

How College Selection Affects Earnings
Stacy Dale - Mathematica Policy Research
Alan Kreuger - Princeton University - 02/16/11

Dale and Kreuger found a big boost to later earnings for students attending highly selective colleges in 1976 and 1989. They controlled for commonly observed factors such as high school GPA and SAT scores.

They further adjusted for student ability by considering the average SAT score of the colleges to which the students applied. This accounted for almost all of the variations in earnings. The remaining effect of college choice on earnings was close to zero.

Certain subgroups benefitted from a prestigious school. Dale and Kreuger considered black and Hispanic students, and those who had relatively less educated parents. Their boost to earnings remained large after the above adjustments.

This suggests to me that the value of highly selective schools is "signaling", as compared to attending less prestigious schools. The prestige of the school may remove some of the negative bias in hiring that affects minority students and those showing the cultural differences of being raised in a less educated household.


The College Scam
01/28/09 - TownHall.com by John Stossel

Do four years of college produce a wealthier life? Maybe the college is just there when people are reaching their potential. And what is the increase in earnings?

[edited] During the campaign, Barack Obama repeated the common statistic, "On average during your lifetime you will earn a million dollars more if you get a bachelor's degree."

Rachele Percel borrowed to pay $24,000 a year to attend Rivier College. "I was told to take out the loans and get a degree in Human Development because when you graduate you're going to be able to get that good job and pay them off, no problem," she told me.

She failed to find a decent job for three years. Now, she holds a low-level desk job doing work she could have done straight out of high school, and she is $85,000 in debt. She says, "I definitely feel like it was a scam."

A recent survey asked thousands of students: Would you go to your college again? About 40% said no.

Dr. Marty Nemko is an education consultant and career counselor:

The bachelor's degree is America's most overrated product. The million dollar increase in earnings is a misleading statistic. It includes billionaire super-earners who raise the average.

More importantly, many college kids would have been successful whether they went to college or not. You could take college-bound students and lock them in a closet for four years: they are going to earn more money. Those are the kids who already tend to be more intelligent, harder-working and more persistent.

Those in the bottom 40% of their high school class have a very small chance of graduating college. Colleges actively recruit those kids. Eight years later, many of them have no degree and lots of debt. They think of themselves as failures. It is immoral that the colleges do not disclose that!"

Universities still throw around that million dollar number. Arizona State recently used it to justify a tuition hike.

Charles Murray's recent book, "Real Education", argues that many students just aren't able to handle college work. Graduation statistics seem to bear him out.


For Most People, College Is a Waste of Time
8/13/08 - WSJ Opinion by Charles Murray, W.H. Brady Scholar at the American Enterprise Institute. This essay is adapted from his forthcoming book, "Real Education: Four Simple Truths for Bringing America's Schools Back to Reality" (Crown Forum).

Mr. Murray provides a plan to make colleges relevant again, because of these problems.

Advanced skills for people with brains really did get more valuable over the course of the 20th century, but the acquisition of those skills got conflated with the existing system of colleges, which had evolved the BA for completely different purposes.

Outside a handful of majors -- engineering and some of the sciences -- a bachelor's degree tells an employer nothing except that the applicant has a certain amount of intellectual ability and perseverance. Even a degree in a vocational major like business administration can mean anything from a solid base of knowledge to four years of barely remembered gut courses.


Aptitude Tests  vs  College

Fred:  My high grades and SAT scores got me into Big College. I'm on my way.

Mike:  After you pay $100,000 in tuition/expenses and lose four years of wages.

Fred:  There will be some studying, but also parties and girls.

Mike:  Too bad you couldn't present your grades and SATs to some company, earn while you learn, party in your own apartment, and buy a Ferrari with that $100,000.

11/13/11 - Carpe Diem by economist Mark J. Perry

George Will:  [edited]  There were 2,000+ personnel tests available to employers in 1964. But, an Illinois official ruled that these might be unfair to disadvantaged groups. Employers were burdened to prove that a test was a "business necessity" for a particular job if it had a "disparate impact" [ Black and White applicants did unequally on the test].

Many employers feared endless litigation. They switched to requiring college degrees as indicators of intelligence and diligence. This was one reason college attendance increased from 5.8 million in 1970 to 17.5 million in 2005.

Peter Thiel:  [edited]  Higher education is a giant selection mechanism. 10% of the value of a college degree comes from learning, 50% from getting into a selective university, and 40% from graduating from a selective college known to employers.

It might be much more efficient if employers could use intelligence tests instead of expensive four-year college degrees that add very little educational value.


Advice Goddess: Ever Heard Of Community College?
08/25/08 - Amy Alkon posts about the pressure of going to a name college, and selfishness. Many commenters report what college was worth to them.


Technology is reducing college costs. Why is tuition going up?
11/2008 Washington Monthly by Kevin Carey [edited]

The average price of attending a public university, adjusted for inflation, more than doubled over the last two decades. The steepest increases came in the last five years.

Colleges have become more efficient and productive through technology, and the cost of teaching is starting to decline. Almost none of those savings are passed along to students. Colleges are pocketing the difference, even as they raise tuition.

Virginia Tech is reputed to be a first-rate engineering school. Engineers need to learn math. But, budget cuts in the math department reduced the number of professors despite increasing numbers of math students. This kind of irrationality is typical in higher education, where departmental budgets often have little relationship to costs, revenues, and demand.

Colleges spend the money elsewhere. The Delta Project on Postsecondary Education Costs found that tuition and fee revenue per student at public research universities increased by 34 percent from 2000 to 2005, inflation adjusted. Spending per student declined on instruction and academic support.

This is not new; overcharging for introductory courses is standard in higher education. Colleges use the excess revenue from huge, inexpensive lecture hall classes to support other, money-losing activities. Freshmen have always been cash cows, and technology has made them more so.

Colleges are status-seeking institutions. Research and scholarship, Division I sports programs, new buildings, and high SATs are all components of status. Status seeking would be perfectly acceptable if a college’s reputation were based largely on teaching. Colleges would balance the competing interests of students, faculty, administrators, alumni, and the public. Self-interested institutions would prosper, and students would get a high-quality, reasonably priced education.

But status in higher education is not based on comparable measures of student learning, because such measures aren’t publicly available; lobbyists for colleges and universities have made sure the data is kept under wraps. It is effectively impossible to judge institutions by their outputs, by how much students learn. So, the pecking order is based on inputs like freshman SAT scores and tuition cost. Price has become a symbol of quality, instead of a component of quality. Colleges have many incentives to raise prices and none to lower them. Lower prices send a negative signal, often driving away students.

Rational comparison would still leave a niche for prestige universities, because there will always be rich people willing to pay for the status of elite colleges. Yale University now gives away complete sets of lecture course videos at open.yale.edu. Yet, more students than ever are ready to pay $50,000 per year for those same courses. Those students aren’t paying a premium for what they learn, they are paying for a piece of paper certifying that they learned it at Yale.


Down with the Four-Year College Degree!
12/03/08 - Cato-Unbound by Charles Murray (10/2008)
The link leads to more papers on the subject.

[edited] So what’s my beef with the current college system? Imagine that you have been asked to design America’s college education system from scratch. One of your colleagues submits the following proposal that is cruel and possibly insane, but it is the system that we have.

•  We will set up a single goal to represent educational success, which will take four years to achieve no matter what is being taught.
•  We will attach an economic reward that often has nothing to do with what has been learned.
•  We will urge large numbers of people to seek that goal, despite having insufficient ability, wait until they have spent a lot of time and money, and then deny it to them.
•  We will stigmatize everyone who doesn’t meet the goal.
•  We will call the goal a “BA.”


Why College Is A Waste Of Money
12/23/08 - EasyOpinions by Andrew Garland
(via Subprime Education by Mark Steyn)

A college student reports on the waste and dispair imposed by a college system that discards about half of the students who try for a degree.

[edited] My high school was a small charter school with the mission to send all of its students to college. Our course work supported an obsession for college preparation. Most kids had full-blown college fever by senior year.

I'm now a sophomore at UMass Amherst. At least a few of the people from high school have already dropped out -- after blowing tens of thousands of dollars on tuition and fees at expensive, but not especially good, private colleges. They were great, smart people, but I knew that they lacked the focus, drive and maturity they would need to graduate.

This money came from parents, from federal Pell Grants, from the colleges, and from student loans that these kids will have to pay back while working low-wage jobs.


Why is law school so expensive?
01/13/10 - IdeoBlog by Larry Ribstein.
Via Cafe Hayek.

[edited] The current system forces everybody who wants to practice any kind of law into three-year, high-priced law schools. This will never produce competition. The cartel forces practical/doctrinal training to coexist uneasily with lawyer-scholars, and results in training that compromises the needs of all kinds of lawyers.

Where is the argument as to why high-level training should be forced down the throats of everybody who wants to practice law?


Does U.S. News Make Law Schools More Expensive?
Frank J. Macchiarola and Michael C. Macchiarola

[edite] The accreditation process gives law schools a virtual monopoly on bar admission. The 200 ABA approved law schools exclude prospective attorneys who cannot afford the cost of a legal education as currently delivered.

This exludes lower cost alternatives like on-line education, credit for accelerated coursework, a two-year curriculum, or clerkships and internships. In fact, the position of law schools as the preferred vehicle for entry into the legal profession is little more than one hundred years old.

The framework of ABA rules has prevented law schools from pursuing radical innovations without jeopardizing accreditation, reputation, or standing.


College Aid Is Corporate Welfare
05/21/12 - The Atlantic by Andrew G. Biggs  (via Advice Goddess)

[edited]:  Recent research suggests that colleges capture a significant portion of federal aid rather than lowering costs to students. Simply put, much of federal student aid is corporate welfare for colleges.

Cellini and Goldin looked at for-profit colleges by eligibility for federal aid. Riegg and Goldin found that aid-eligible institutions charge 75% higher tuition across all states, samples, and specifications, even when controlling for the content and quality of courses. The higher tuition is about equal to average federal assistance. This suggests that institutions raise tuition to capture the maximum aid available.

Are for-profit colleges essentially different from non-profits? "For-profit" suggests greedy businessmen who raise tuition whenever possible. We might think that non-profit colleges would charge less out of altruism. But, they charge the same or more, offering more services over time to attract the best students with the best financial aid at ever higher prices.

Jul 8, 2008

Seduction and Politics

Is A First Date Too Soon For Love?

A woman waits at a table in a small Italian restaurant. A man arrives, gives her a questioning look, and approaches.

Jim: Hello, are you Pam?
Pam: Hi, you must be Jim.
Jim: [sits down] It is so nice to see you Pam. Sorry I'm a bit late.

Pam: It's been 30 minutes. What happened?
Jim: Various things. The details are not important. I'm just glad to be here now.

Pam: Well, OK. I see that you are a man of mystery.
Jim: [eyes flashing] I believe in living fully in the present, the past is gone.

Pam: You know, I do know something about your past. My friend Alice told me that you have dated a lot of women.
Jim: Pam, I don't know why she would say that. I have dated some, but I wouldn't say "a lot". Not much more than average. Anyway, the details are not important. I'm happy to be here with you now.

Pam: You are certainly handsome, and I like your direct and confident manner.
Jim: I'm not like other men. I have big plans for the future.

Pam: Oh, what are those?
Jim: I want a stable relationship, a loving wife, children, and I enjoy working hard to make my beloved happy. I would never argue. There really is no need for disagreement. I want a happy family and to bring us all together.

Pam: I like that as an ideal, but how can people avoid all disagreement?
Jim: I only want good things, so there is nothing to disagree with. The people who disagree with me are dumb. I see that you are smart. Don't worry. It will all work out after you are committed to me. You will see.

Pam: You are going a little fast here for a first date. I don't know much about you. I think we should date for a while before we talk about a glorious future. I would like to see who you really are.
Jim: I say these things because I really mean them. My words are sincere, and they are based on my plans and dreams. I really am who I seem to be. Don't insult me by asking who I "really am". I'm telling you all about me, and you are going to love me.

Pam: Alice told me more about you. Don't you remember her? She dated you a year ago, and was excited about your plans together for marriage and children. But, you left her for a prettier girl with social connections.
Jim: Of course I remember Alice. I hope she is well. I think she misinterpreted what I said. I haven't changed my position, but I needed to recognize some changing facts. I always intended to marry her and have a stable relationship, a loving wife, children, and to enjoy working hard to make her happy. Things just didn't work out. The details are not important, and they are in the past. I'm happy to be here with you now.

Pam: Yes, we are here now, and you are really cute and say such nice things. I want to believe you and know what our future might be together.
Jim: This is only our first of many times together, but I love thinking about the future. A future of a stable relationship, a loving wife, children, and working hard to make her, uh, you happy.

Pam: What will life be like for us?
Jim: I don't believe in disconnected lives. We will combine our dreams, efforts, and savings. Yours will be mine and mine will be yours. You will work hard with me to build a wonderful future. I will use our resources to show people how great we are, and they will look up to us as shining examples. I also think a powerboat and a basement bar would be fun. We'll have the best parties in the neighborhood.

Pam: That sounds like work. I'm not really a party girl.
Jim: You are going to love it. Believe me.

Pam: What is that paper?
Jim: It is an engagement letter. We can't be really engaged, it is too soon. First date and all. I don't want to rush things, but I need your support in writing.

It only says that if we spend time together, and if you marry me in November, our bank accounts will merge in happiness, and we won't disagree with each other about our plans after that. As an honest person, I think you will sign this. There is no obligation. I just need to know that I can effectively carry out our plans for real emotional change if we are married in November. This is only fair if we have an exclusive relationship. There are a few other things that aren't really important.

Pam: What is your profession?
Jim: I'm a politician. I'm on the way to a greatness that was always my destiny. Come along with me, my darling.

Jul 4, 2008

No Price Gouging Here

We're Honorable, So We Don't Have Any Stuff
It had been raining for three days. Jim went to Sam's Hardware Store in town. There were deep road puddles everywhere.

Jim: Hi Sam. I'm looking for a good water pump. My basement is drowning.
Sam: Hi Jim. I'm sorry to tell you that I had three WP-ABQ pumps in stock before this rain. A pretty good value at $140 too. But, they sold out.

Jim: I'm in trouble. There is 3" of water in my basement and it is rising slowly. I really need that pump.
Sam: I feel for you. My last pump sold to a guy who didn't need it now, but wanted to be safe. At the standard price of $140, he decided not to wait.

Jim: Have you ordered any more of them? When could I get one?
Sam: My usual re-stock is in two weeks.

Jim: Cripes! Can't I get one any faster? I'm willing to pay more.
Sam: Pay more. That reminds me of that big rain 4 years ago. I wanted to do some good, and make some extra money, so I rush ordered 8 of those pumps, and even paid a private trucker to ship them. I figured I could sell them for $280 each, and I'd be OK even if I had a few left over.

It worked out pretty good, until one of my customers (go figure!) complained to the Office of Consumer Protection. Said that I had "price gouged" him, because the usual price is $140. After the lawyer's fees and the fine, I was out $4,500. That sure taught me a lesson. Now, I only deal at the usual price. It isn't worth the trouble and risk to order ahead at that price.

Jim: How about a rush order now?
Sam: I could ask for a fast shipment and charge you $25 more. I even have a form from the Office of Consumer Protection. But, you would need to have it notarized at the bank, and it would still take 3 days for the pump to get here. Do you want to do that?

Jim: No Sam, it seems I'm stuck. I'll have to drive 20 miles to MillistonVille and see if they have any there.
Sam: Good luck on the roads. Be careful of some suppliers. Those pumps are great, but you don't know if they're used or broken until you hook them up.

Jim: Thanks Sam.


Feelings

Feelings about price gouging are emotional and wishful. They are something like  "The universe is against me, and my fellow man wants to charge me for help and supplies. I can't do anything about the universe, but I can prosecute those no-good businessmen."

We all wish that a guardian angel would help us in an emergency, but we are stuck with help from our fellow man. Some will volunteer. Some will pay higher costs to deliver goods at a higher price, possibly much higher. Some will have inventory that they parcel out at what the market will bear.

Should we investigate and prosecute the ones who are making a windfall profit? No.

People with the right skills, who own goods in sudden demand, or who have the connections and experience to acquire needed supplies, are just lucky. It may seem wrong that some people can profit from other's needs, but that is just the way the world works. The people in need cannot make their lives better by promising to investigate and punish those people who can help them. This promise to punish discourages all help: help from the good-willed as well as help from opportunists.


Planning Ahead

The idea of "price gouging" poses the question: In which situation are you better off?
(1)  The goods you want are sold-out and unavailable at the usual,
    lower price, or
(2)  The goods are available at a temporarily higher price.

In case (2) you can decide if the price is worth it.

When merchants are punished by laws against price gouging (as in New Jersey), they have no incentive to plan ahead by stocking up. So, if you individually have not purchased ahead, you are out of luck.

A good effect of free market pricing is to usefully ration limited supplies. At twice the price, many people will limit their purchases to just cover the emergency, rather than buy up everything they can. More people are able to get needed supplies.


Failures At Gas Stations

The worst effect of price gouging laws is to dissuade companies from planning ahead for emergencies. Existing companies are much more knowledgeable and better positioned to serve the public than emergency teams trying to set up infrastructure in one or two days.

Consider a gas station with no emergency electric generator. If public power fails, they can't pump gasoline. Why don't they all have a generator?

Generators are expensive to buy, install, and maintain. The station can't recover these costs in normal times, as they compete against stations that don't incur that expense. The responsible station must rely on much higher prices in emergencies, when they can pump gas and their competitors can't. But, they can't charge higher prices in emergencies, so they don't acquire emergency equipment.

The same goes for larger gasoline storage. The station doesn't need it in normal times. The costs of a larger storage tank could only be recovered by "price gouging" in emergencies.


Provide Choice

Our politicians should allow free trade at any price. This would not stop them from providing emergency services. It would merely allow an additional private choice in emergencies. Politicians can advise people that aid is on the way. People need not buy the goods they need at higher prices if they want to wait "just a bit" for government help. Let the people decide.

Politicians do not make things better by denying the public an option. That is the government monopoly at work. A cynic might say that politicians do not want to be compared to privately provided emergency services. It might make them seem less useful.


Links

Gas Prices: The Real Story
09/12/08 - Rich at Shots Across The Bow investigates why gas prices are spiking in Tennessee. Supply, not gouging.

But now Ike is headed for Galveston, and the pipelines are being shut down completely. When you're in a low stock condition, you are relying on a steady flow of gasoline to maintain smooth distribution. When that steady flow is disrupted, you're only hours away from shortages.


Consequences of Price Gouging Laws
06/01/09 - Knowledge Problem by Michael Giberson

[edited]:  West Virginia's price gouging law was triggered by the May 9 declaration of emergency for a flooded area. Marathon Oil temporarily halted sales to independent gasoline retailers lacking a current supply contract. Marathon said that it would lose money on sales made under the capped prices.

West Virginia's “anti-price-gouging laws allow businesses to increase prices to recoup costs if the increase is directly attributable to additional costs imposed on the business.” That is an unclear standard.

Georgia had higher prices due to supply disruptions last September. Fines for price gouging have ranged up to $20,000 plus restitution.

Marathon's wholesale gasoline costs have increased over the three weeks since the declaration of emergency in West Virginia. How much of that increase is “directly attributable to additional costs imposed on the business”? Marathon may have reasonably decided not to risk a lawsuit, and not pursue the opportunity to “recoup costs” under the law.

It is legal to not sell gasoline to new customers. So, why should it be legally risky to offer gasoline at some high price to those new customers?

Jul 1, 2008

Magic Power

Could They Do The Magic If They Wanted To?

A friend in college told me about his mother and what she knew about electricity. She regarded electricity as a type of magic and was resentful that she had to pay for it. She thought that it ran everywhere through the walls of the house. The reason that there were wall sockets was so the plugs on appliances would not damage the walls when plugged in. Otherwise, you could jam the plug anywhere and get the electricity. The plugs were designed so you could be charged for electricity when you used them. She was a good person, but didn't understand physics.

Electricity certainly is a type of magic supplied by a mysterious universe. It isn't free magic. Two wires run between a generator and an appliance. If you use the power of an engine or a waterfall to spin the generator, then you can absorb some of that energy in the appliance and force the appliance motor to spin, or let the energy escape into a resistance wire and get light or heat.

This only works if you build the generator, the appliance, make and install the wires, and power the system with other engines, using gas, coal, oil, nuclear, or water power. And dig up and refine the fuel for those chemical engines, or build the dams to control the waterfall. It has only taken about 180 years to get all of this developed. There is a bill for electricity because all of this work was and is done by people, and they want to be paid.

History 1821 First electric motor, 1837 Industrial electric motors, 1878-86 Commercial light and power stations, 1913 Electric refrigerator, 1953 345,000 volt transmission line.

+++

This history is generally true for all of our technology. It all seems easy after it is done, but it is the result of continuing effort by millions of people serving hundreds of millions of people. It has taken time and immense investment to create and combine all of the pieces to get the current results.

People with little engineering knowledge (most people) become suspicious that it is all easier than they have been told. They think: those engineering nerds could give us all this and more for less cost, if they would only think a bit harder and do the magic better. Why not get electricity from sunlight and 100 miles per gallon from gasoline? It has been done! Don't they understand that we need this? They are the keepers of the magic, and maybe they are releasing the secrets slowly so that they can be paid more.

Politicians are pushing exactly this position under the phrase "addicted to oil". Politicians are saying that a little push here, and a subsidy there, will show the way toward an energy future that was being hidden by the nerds. Favored "green" companies will be paid by the government along the way. That is what "subsidy" means. And those companies will pay the politicians. That is what "campaign contribution" means.

"Political" means "sneaky and lying" in normal usage. It is amazing that people trust the announcements of politicians more than the system of free investigation and discovery that has produced our technological world. Political strategies written on cocktail napkins are supposed to replace practical scientific knowledge and careful investment in productive technology.

Federal and state governments have acted to slow the development of oil and coal, to slow the construction of conventional power plants, and to stop nuclear power and refineries. These activities are legal, so politicians say that they haven't stopped them. These activities are highly regulated, and many were allowed to get to completion when the regulatory process prevented operation, after all the money had been invested and lost.

Imagine being an investor in one of those projects that was regulated away. It only takes one or two such cases to effectively stop development.

Politicians have also slowed the development of wind and solar (!) because these affect scenic views or use so much land. Ethanol production is highly subsidized because the subsidies benefit farmers, who have an outsized influence in rural states. Ethanol is useful as a costly additive to gasoline to reduce emissions of ozone and unburned fuel. Not enough ethanol can be produced or used at present to replace gasoline.

An "addiction" is short feelings of happiness combined with a long, painful decline in health and thinking. My personal relation to oil involves hot showers, driving to work and play, and being warm in the winter. This is a comfortable life, not an addiction. The true addiction is the false hope of the extreme green movement. Short periods of self-congratulation are combined with a long decline in what people will enjoy in their lives.

"Weaning ourselves off of oil", implies moving from infantile to adult behavior, from a simple food provided in complete care, to an adult menu of natural food.

There is little other "food" to eat. There is no established path from "easy" oil to "adult" (what)? "Weaning" implies we are just lazy, and should go use the adult energy. There is no "adult energy", and no analogy.

I'm not against green. Use french-fry oil for diesel engines, if you can stand the smell. Put up a wind turbine, if you can get a permit and no one can see it. Cover your roof in solar panels, if you are rich. Just don't expect these marginal actions to support everyone. Not yet.

It may help to think about recycling, another program pushed by green government. Did recycling lower the taxes in your town? What are the efficiencies of having two big trucks come by on Tuesday rather than one? How many miles per gallon do those trucks get? Does the town pay a subsidy to the recycling centers, or do the centers pay the town? Do the recycling companies contribute to the "campaigns" of your town officers?

Don't block development of oil, coal, gas, and nuclear power. If you do, then french-fry oil, wind turbines, and expensive roof panels are what you are going to get. Maybe. After many uncomfortable or expensive winters.

Links

Energy Matters presents an overview of types of energy production and some difficulties. See the section on Wind Turbines.

Ethanol Fantasy Fuels a Food-Price Nightmare
05/08/08 - John M. Berry at Bloomberg.com. About food prices, farm subsidies, and the futility and disruption of growing corn for ethanol fuel.

US halts solar energy projects over environment fears
06/2008 - The US Bureau of Land Management (BLM) is putting a two year hold on new solar energy projects on public land, to study the impact on plants and wildlife. "Solar plants may cover thousands of acres. We need to determine what the environmental consequences are. What does it mean when you spray the land with herbicides or remove vegetation?"

U.S. Lifts Moratorium on New Solar Projects
7/3/08 - The BLM announced that it was lifting the freeze, barely a month after it was put into effect. I suspect that the regulatory "hold" on the project was quite a thrill for the developers, and that this is welcome news. Do we live in a nation of stupid laws, or of political influence? The result for past proposed nuclear power plants was not so good.

Residential solar electric: still too expensive?
06/24/08 - A system that provides $420/year of electricity costs $40,000. This is a 1% return on investment, assuming no repairs or maintenance. Maintenance is conveniently up on the roof.

Alternate Energy - The 1% Test
7/18/08 - With some thoughts about engineering "magic".

Powering Down NY at The New York Post. From INSTAPUNDIT
8/04/08 A commision report approved the operation of the Indian Point nuclear power plant. New York Attorney General Andrew Cuomo has a different view.

"It's no surprise that Entergy's panel of paid consultants has turned a blind eye to the unacceptable risks posed by Indian Point," Cuomo huffed.

Cuomo, of course, has been trying to get the plant closed for more than a year now - playing upon apocalyptic fears of environmental destruction or terrorist attack.

The Green Hornet
8/06/2008 - A Wall Street Journal opinion that questions Mr. Obama's energy policy. It nicely reviews the current energy structure of the US.

"On Monday, Mr. Obama said that the U.S. must "end the age of oil in our time," with "real results by the end of my first term in office." This, he said, will "take nothing less than a complete transformation of our economy." Mark that one down as the understatement of the year. Maybe Mr. Obama really is the Green Hornet, or some other superhero of his current political myth."

Energy Policy for the Ignorant at Powerline
8/25/2008 - Comments about Speaker of the House Nancy Pelosi. She believes that natural gas is a clean non-fossil fuel, is against drilling for anything, and is setting US energy policy.

PELOSI: I'm -- I'm investing in something I believe in. I believe in natural gas as a clean, cheap alternative to fossil fuels.

Wind Energy Bumps Into Power Grid’s Limits
08/27/08 - NY Times (via Instapundit)
Energy production is big and complex. We need a policy to empower knowledgeable people (businesses) to handle all of the details, not just a new idea here and there. Changing big things takes time.

[Increasing wind power] would require moving large amounts of power over long distances, from the windy, lightly populated plains in the middle of the country to the coasts where many people live. Builders are also contemplating immense solar-power stations in the nation’s deserts that would pose the same transmission problems.
Preparing 240 Miles of Power Lines for Winter’s Wrath
11/09/08 - NYTimes.com by Ken Belson (via Freakonomics)
[edited] Doug Wassil and Eric DeChent inspect the 1,600 towers that support high-voltage electrical lines in New York City, Westchester County and points farther north. They use binoculars, hoists and voltage meters to ensure that the towers’ concrete bases, steel beams, ceramic insulators and other hardware will withstand high winds, freezing cold, and heavy snow.

Consolidated Edison’s towers, some nearly 500 feet tall, carry much of the power New York City needs from upstate. If a falling tree, high wind, or ice downed a line carrying 500,000 volts of electricity, parts of the city and its suburbs could go dark.

Disaster Resistant Energy Sources
11/10/08 - ChicagoBoyz.net by Shannon Love [edited]
Advocates of alternative energy seem to work from an unconscious conception that energy is to some degree a luxury good. They believe that we can live safely, healthily, and well without it. They plan in a cavalier manner, assuming that conditions will always be ideal and predictable, and if not, well, we can do without luxuries if we have to.

Energy is the heart of our lives. Without it, most of us will die within days. Losing 50% of our energy during a northeastern blizzard would kill millions. Sustained shortages of energy would kill more slowly, but just as surely, as we reverted back to the horrific lives of our ancestors. We need to think about rare scenarios because we are so dependent on energy that it would take only one such scenario to destroy everything.

People who advocate alternative energy need to tear their eyes away from the marketing brochures and instead try think hard about how to keep an old woman in the slums of Detroit warm in the heart of a once-in-50-years blizzard. If they can’t do that, they need to shelve their plans.

Problems With Green Energy
12/26/08 - AmericanThinker by Thomas Lifson

Darn, there are always a few glitches.

[edited] Reliability and maintenance problems of green energy sources are highlighted in a strikingly honest report in today's New York Times by Kate Galbraith.
In winter, wind turbine blades ice up and may hurl chunks of ice as they rotate, biodiesel fuel congeals in the gas tanks of buses, and solar panels produce less power in the weaker sun, or no power when covered with snow.

Even in northern California, with mild winters and little snow, solar panels can generate about half as much as in the summer, depending on how much they are tilted.

Jun 14, 2008

Teaching the Math Analogy

An analogy is a teaching aid, not knowledge in itself

This is a comment on Makes Me Want To Kill Myself With Occam's Razor at Advice Goddess. The video there presents how multiplication and division is badly taught in some schools.

My aunt Linda was a sweet person, a bit formal, and an elementary school teacher. She had a question for me about teaching math: Can you subtract a negative number? I'm a math/physics college grad.

Her teaching guide used a mailman analogy to teach addition and subtraction. You start with $10. The mailman delivers a check for $5, so you have 10 + 5 = $15.

If the mailman delivers a bill for $8, then 15 - 8 = $7. Also, you can think of this as adding a negative number, so you can also write it as 15 + (-8) = $7.

The problem is that the mailman never takes away a bill, so how can you subtract a negative number? Other teachers at her school didn't have an answer.

After some discussion, she thought it was arbitrary that subtracting a negative is like adding the positive, and it didn't fit the mailman analogy, so she would just not teach it. An inquisitive 10 year old was told that you just can't subtract negative numbers.

I will take the leap to generalize. Schools are teaching mathematical subjects the same way as other subjects. Math is presented as a collection of facts to memorize, with no understanding of the patterns or meanings that the facts are supposed to illustrate. The failure of the textbooks shown in the video (aside from the travelogue approach for filling in 50 pages) is that they don't teach fundamentals (what is it physically like to multiply and divide), and they don't teach compact algorithms derived from the fundamentals.

They teach a middle view that obscures both the fundamentals and the algorithms, leaving math as a large collection of facts that are mostly alike and hard to apply. A mystery best left to the people who magically "get it" from above.

Sorry to say, without a deeper understanding, having a calculator is no help. You punch in a few numbers, make mistakes, get wild answers, and sign for a mortgage with terms that can't make any sense to you.

Jun 10, 2008

Should the U.S. Be Talking to Iran, Syria, Hamas, and Al-Quaeda?

We should be talking, and we are talking.

Mr. Obama has said that he would talk personally, as President, without preconditions, to many countries and organizations that have declared hatred for the U.S. and its allies. He didn't specifically leave out any group.

The wags say that he didn't specifically include the leadership of Iraq, and the military officers and generals serving in Iraq.

Read more ...

This is a bold position. It implies that President Bush and his administration are just too timid, stupid, or war-loving to take this obvious step toward communicating. It implies that Mr. Obama is unusually courageous, intelligent, and peace-loving, willing to go the extra step to eliminate misunderstandings and find a truce with our enemies. One smart man, with bold ideas, who can talk well, can step in and make the difference.

There are problems with this position. The U.S. already talks with all of these groups, and negotiations are vastly complicated.

The State Department has ambassadors and diplomats who devote themselves to talking. The communication goes through foreign embassies or "informal" contacts when there is no direct contact. The leaders of these groups often give speeches and issue statements. These are translated and discussed within the State Department and in universities, at least.

All this talk gives results that need analysis. For example, "Syria" is not a single entity; there are various power groups within Syria having different views. Who has real power, what are they saying, and what are they doing? The U.S. is also not a single entity from this point of view. If one President says something, will the Congress or the next President say or do the same thing?

Sometimes there is general agreement after working out the details at lower levels. The Presidents of the two (or more) groups meet to confirm the agreement as the last step.

Mr. Obama's idea does not work, because it is impossible for him to work out an agreement in that way. He can't do all the negotiation needed for the groups on his end, and neither can his adversary. He would be in the position of a diplomat, except that his political prestige would be at risk. The most he could do is offer concessions.

Consider this possible exchange:
US Pres: Hi.
Antagonist: What does the Western dog want?
US Pres: I demand that you stop attacking us.
Antagonist: Attacking you is in our blood, a service to God, and a requirement of keeping my power.
US Pres: (a) We will squash you with cluster bombs, or (b) You can have $5 Billion in aid each year.

A threat like (a) has to be delivered in a public speech to be believed. A concession like (b) is a mistake early in a negotiation.

I think Mr. Obama's idea is posturing. It sounds good but is not thought through, and he can't believe in it. He would be ignorant and arrogant if he did believe in it.

--------
Negotiating Treaties in the Global Environment by the Australian Government: Department of Foreign Affairs and Trade. A quick scan of this paper gives a feeling for the complexity of a negotiation between nations or powerful groups.

May 30, 2008

Raising Grades

Improving Educational Reputation by Changing What Is Taught and How It Is Tested

David Foster posted Skipping Science Class, Continued on 5/28/08. Here is an excerpt:

A couple of days ago, the Telegraph had an article about the British Government’s new national science test and the unbelievably simplistic questions it contains. For example:

In a multiple choice question, teenagers were asked why electric wires are made from copper. The four possible answers were that copper was brown, was not magnetic, conducted electricity, or that it conducted heat.

This question can of course be answered without knowing anything at all about either electricity or copper.

This is my guess as to what is going on.

Read more ...

Business organizations have to gain more resources than they use (make money), so they develop measures of production and efficiency to guide them. If they don't make money, they must find more effective measures. Making money is a hard fact that cannot be faked or explained away. Not for long, anyway.

Schools administered by government are a bureaucracy. Bureaucracies don't make money, so they are free to develop measures of productivity that show success, and also redefine their operations to create success.

Such schools started by testing for knowledge, which gives disappointing results.

They later discovered that the test results could be "renormalized to a curve", which standardizes the results to show 70% success in all courses. This is the practice of giving some percentage of the class A's, some percentage B's, and so on. This is explained as merely adjusting for the different abilities of the teachers. No matter how bad the subject matter or the teacher, the measure shows good results, because some percentage of the class gets A's and B's, by design. Educational failure is distributed silently to the students, and little effort goes into follow-up studies that would reveal the failures.

Unfortunately, even grading to the curve is disappointing. It is hard to explain why students get an "A" for answering 60% of the multiple choice questions correctly, or a "C" for answering 30%.

Now, in the later stages, government schools realize that it is easier to show success if you construct easier questions. The students aren't benefitting from the classes anyway, and the smart kids will learn on their own what they need to, so why make the questions hard? The schools redesign the classes to be about social relations, which everyone understands, and they design the tests to guide students to the correct answers. Grading on the curve gives the same results, 70% success, but at least an "A" can be set at answering 85% correctly.

The school is saying, in effect, Who cares about why copper carries electricity the best? When you go to buy the wire, it is made of copper. There is really no need to understand how the world works, just accept it the way that it is handed to you.

Question: Why are the rules the way that they are? Answer: Because those are the rules, and that is easy to remember.

May 27, 2008

How To Predict the Future Without Knowing Anything

Jim: I have come to learn from the master. How do you sell so much stock? I know that you aren't studying those reports. So, give.

Mike: Uh, I'd rather not divulge my secrets.

Jim: In this case, you will tell me, or the boss is going to find out who took his cigars.

Mike: (smiling) I suppose it won't hurt to tell a man of your integrity.

Cold-call 20 prospects, and maybe 16 will listen to you. Tell them that they are wise to be skeptical of a new broker, but that you are willing to prove that you know what you are doing. No obligation.

Give each prospect the names of 4 stocks that have good analytical ratings. We know that they are just as likely to go up as go down. Use 4 different stocks for each person, so you can't be too unlucky. Don't sell them anything yet. Keep good records. Wait a while, call back the "winners", and then sell, sell, sell.

Jim: That doesn't seem like it is going to work.

Mike: So, you aren't too good with numbers. Here is the breakdown.

Each of your stocks has about equal chances of going up or down. After a few weeks, they will all change at least a little. There are 4 of them for each person, so on average the 16 results for 4 stocks work out like this:

 People      %  GoesUp  Reputation
 -----   -----  ------  ----------
   1      6.25    4     Wizard
   4     25.00    3     Analyst
   6     37.50    2     Who needs you?
   4     25.00    1     Idiot
   1      6.25    0     Jinx
 ---
  16
One prospect out of 16 saw all the stock picks go up, and 4 out of 16 saw three stocks go up. There are 5 prospects who now think that you are a Wizard or Analyst. Sell them stocks with dividends, and it may take forever for them to catch on that your advice is only average. In a down market, show them that their stocks didn't go down as much as they could have. In an up market, you may get 11 converts instead of just 5.

Jim: That is beautiful! But, what if they catch on?

Mike: Our cold-call lists are wide and deep. There are always more fish in the sea.

Jim: OK, thanks, I'm not telling anyone else in our shop. You know (thinking) this would work pretty well in a lot of sales situations, even in politics.

Mike: (smiling) Yeah.

May 19, 2008

A New Kind of Politics

Mr. Obama gets support by saying that he is a new kind of politician, not like those terrible old types of politician.

The same is true for Mr. McCain, Ms. Clinton, Mr. Edwards, Ms. Pelosi in Congress, and all of the other members of Congress. All of the state governors, too. Politicians are all promising change this year, as opposed to the old, horrible, non-change of their past performance.

Read more ...

All of these people have seen the light of change, and want to give us a lot of it. There is no explanation for why they didn't give us change last year or five years ago. Well, let's be thankful for change now. The particular plans will be announced as soon as they are put together. For now, great change is written on cocktail napkins all across this nation. They will focus their minds on the details as soon as the pressure of being elected has passed.

Have you ever seen a certain memo from your managers at work? It said that greater profits (or smaller losses) would be possible if everyone would just work harder, or smarter, or pay attention. Everyone should pull together and do a better job, with less sickness, fewer errands, quicker sips from the water cooler, and reusing the coffee cups. Above all, everyone should be proud of their company and support their great managers. Did this make you feel better? Was it successful?

When a politician says "I will bring you change", you must expect him (or her) to deliver the plan, not just the plan for the plan. You have a right to see the details, and see the analysis that others make of the details. Without that, you have only a promise, one that has been made for hundreds of years.

May 5, 2008

A Political Speech: Troubling Times

[Satire]

My fellow Americans.

May I first say that all of you are the most intelligent, beautiful, clear thinking, generous, patriotic, and deserving people that I have met, along with all of the other great people of your town, city, and state.

I am sorry to bring you bad news, and I hope you don't shoot the messenger (smiles). We live in troubling and difficult times.

The details don't really matter. If you must have something specific to focus your thoughts, then one or more of these may do: global warming, gasoline prices, college tuition, colder winters, home mortgages, unemployment, bridge collapses, earthquakes, medical costs, fatty foods, terrorists, equine encephalitis, hurricanes, cable TV rates, ozone holes, flu epidemics, cigarette smoke, rich neighbors, day care, retirement funding, melting glaciers, potholes, demanding employers, and taxes.

I could go on. My staff has compiled a list of 463 of life's difficulties, and I am not convinced that we have listed them all. I haven't published this list, it is too depressing.

The good news is that I am ready to roll up my sleeves, sit down with the very best people who will work with the government, and deliver to you a better life. If we organize things in a different way, and all come together in support of this common good, we can finally get a grip on the situation and prosper in ways that are not even imaginable today.

Honestly, this will cost some money, and there will be higher taxes, but isn't it worth it? I promise that we will not raise much more tax from you, but only from those fortunate few that have money in the bank and an income that you find hard to imagine. And from the highest paid basketball and football players, and lottery winners. I think that you agree, that they should not overly benefit from their luck and ability, when there is so much need among you all.

It is clear to me, and I hope to you, that the difference between a world of need and a world of plenty, the difference between a world of want and a world of happiness, is the excess profit of that elite. So what if they haven't stolen their wealth from you; they haven't shared it with you either. They have paid a small one-third of their income in tax, and it certainly could be a bit more.

I want to be realistic. My time in political office, and possibly the service of my wife, in-laws, cousins, and children, may not be enough to complete all of the changes that are needed. I can set the government onto a new path, and it will be the work of others from my family and party to continue on that path.

Even after I leave office, after serving for as long as humanly and legally possible, the fruit of these efforts may not be realized. I will then work tirelessly to publish books, give lectures, and attend tedious but necessary events and dinners to continue the work of helping you all. I will convert a large portion of my Connecticut residence to be the offices of the Committee for the Future, so that this work can go on.

That is the dream. First, I must be elected. With your help, support, and votes, I will gain high office and be the embodiment of change and prosperity. If not now, then when?

------
Harrison Bergeron
01/27/10 - A short story by the late Kurt Vonnegut, Jr. (1961) - Online

Current governments want to solve life's problems by soaking the rich. There is another way to achieve equality and lower envy between people.

Vonnegut wrote about forcing equality by making people equal in everything by handicapping them physically and mentally. Very funny, and spot on about the politically correct view of equality. An excerpt:

It was tragic, all right, but George and Hazel couldn't think about it very hard. Hazel had a perfectly average intelligence, which meant she couldn't think about anything except in short bursts. And George, while his intelligence was way above normal, had a little mental handicap radio in his ear. He was required by law to wear it at all times. It was tuned to a government transmitter. Every twenty seconds or so, the transmitter would send out some sharp noise to keep people like George from taking unfair advantage of their brains.

Apr 26, 2008

Confused Liability Produces Bad Policy

A pizza delivery man for Pizza Hut recently used his own gun to defend himself against a robbery by shooting the robber. He was not charged by the police, who confirmed that he was defending himself. He was later fired by Pizza Hut for carrying a gun against company policy. The first reaction is to see Pizza Hut as heartless and stupid.

The pizza companies are merely doing what the society wants, as expressed by the liability law. If they allow drivers to carry guns, then that is a corporate policy of allowance. They would be supporting the practice. Then, if a driver caused an injury with a gun, there would be a big lawsuit against Pizza Hut, which they would lose, if they couldn't prove that the third party had threatened the driver (and maybe even if they could prove it).

On the other side, some people think that Pizza Hut should pay damages if a robber injures one of their drivers, because Pizza Hut should protect their employees. Never mind that Pizza Hut has no power to issue guns to its employees, and it isn't clear what protection could be offered otherwise.

I think that Pizza Hut had to fire the employee, or some later lawsuit would claim that they condone their drivers carrying guns, even though they have a policy against it.

We have a society where companies are held liable for all bad outcomes, regardless of the good sense behind a policy. It seems that the best a pizza company can do is to hope that their drivers carry guns, hope that they don't find out, and to fire any driver who uses a gun even in self defense.

Comment by Say Uncle
Story by KCCI

Is Obama Guilty by Association?

Updated 10/14/08

Guilt by Association is false evidence when convicting someone of a crime in court. A person is not criminally guilty because his father, brother, friend, or employee is guilty. A court needs more proof.

Politics is about understanding, ideas, and truth. The voter is not convicting the politician; the voter is choosing a leader. What is a politician's understanding and bias about the world? What are his ideas? Is he telling the truth about his thoughts and conclusions, or is he merely saying what we want to hear?

It is obvious that people of similar beliefs associate. "Birds of a feather flock together" is obviously true about personal belief, if ideas matter at all to a person.

Mr. Obama presents himself as a man of ideas and belief. Shall we understand that he cares nothing about the history, ideas, and beliefs of his close associates? I do not think that he, Pastor Wright, self proclaimed bomber Bill Ayers, and terrorist fund-raiser Dr. Hatem El-Hady form a personal debating society where Mr. Obama argues one position and they argue the other side.

Would Mr. Obama say in private, "I disagreed with Pastor Wright about all that horrible slander against white people and society, but I sat there because I needed to convince my political base that I was one of them"? Either he agrees with Pastor Wright, or he cares nothing about his personal belief in politics, and he would represent anything to anyone to be elected.

I have deleted a paragraph here about Obama's children possibly having play dates with Ayers' children. I have added more recent and widely quoted references. Andrew Garland - 08/28/08
Mr. Obama has a long association with Bill Ayers, a former Weathermen member, bomber, and current ideologue. Ayers admitted in 2001 that he bombed a police station and the Pentagon in the 1960's, regretting that he couldn't have done more. He was not prosecuted because illegal wiretaps were used to identify him.

Obama, Ayers, and the Annenberg Challenge Cover-Up
08/22/08 - by Tom Maguire at PajamasMedia

Bill Ayers led the group that brought $49.2 million to Chicago and formed the Chicago Annenberg Challenge. The kick-off in January 1995 was attended by the governor of Illinois and the mayor of Chicago, as well as many other luminaries. The first chairman of the Chicago Annenberg Challenge was Barack Obama, a post he held until 1999 when he stepped down and remained on the board.
Axelrod Talks About Bill Ayers
02/26/08 - by Ben Smith of Politico.com
He reports what Obama's campaign manager David Axelrod said, when asked about Ayers:
Bill Ayers lives in [Obama's] neighborhood. Their kids attend the same school. They're certainly friendly, they know each other, as anyone whose kids go to school together.
FactChecking BarackBook: The Obama-Ayers children
07-28-08 - Reports that Bill Ayers is married to Bernardine Dohrn, also a former Weathermen member and bomber. They have two adult children and were guardians of a third child, also now an adult. Obama's two children are aged 7 and 10. The post asks: "Exactly where is the school that these “kids” all attended together?"

Obama's 'Weatherman' Connection
02-19-08 at The Washington Post - The Fact Checker, by Michael Dobbs

Obama spokesman Bill Burton noted in a statement that Ayers was a professor of education at the University of Illinois and a former aide to Mayor Richard M. Daley, and continued:

"Senator Obama strongly condemns the violent actions of the Weathermen group, as he does all acts of violence. But he was an eight-year-old child when Ayers and the Weathermen were active, and any attempt to connect Obama with events of almost forty years ago is ridiculous."

Mr. Obama's spokesman Bill Burton is being cute. When asked about Obama's association with Ayers, he answered that Obama was too young to be at the bombing. That is amazing to me.

In fact, Bill Ayers organized the Chicago Annenberg Challenge and appointed Obama as its chairman. This is a close relationship in my understanding.

As a comparison, I don't think Obama would have worked for anyone who had bombed a black church as a member of the Ku Klux Klan. It would not matter that the unrepentant bomber was accepted by the mayor of his town or had become an educator. I believe that some violent crimes would prevent Obama from working for an unrepentant criminal. Bombing the Pentagon and a police station does not rise to that level for Obama.

Association does not assign guilt to Mr. Obama. Politics is not about guilt; politics is all about ideas, belief, and association. What could the explanation be for Mr. Obama's associations? Possibly, he agrees with his associates. Possibly, he disagrees, but has maintained these long-time associations to attract his political base and advance his career, fooling them about what he believes.

Either Mr. Obama believes things that are horrifying to me, or he is as expedient a politician as I have ever seen, without any belief that matters to him in public. I can't see a third possibility, and I don't like either of the first two.

Links

Inspired by Don Surber: Wrong Crowd

Obama Played by Chicago Rules
WSJ Opinion 8-20-08 By David Freddoso
Mr. Obama's story includes his rise into national politics because of his ability to reach out to all sides and communicate with the people. Instead, his success came from work in Chicago machine politics, disqualifying opponents through careful attention to election law, and luck.

Wright, Ayers, and Obama: An Agnostic Quotes the Bible
04/23/08 by Roger L Simon at PajamasMedia.com

But at that point I didn’t realize the extent of Obama’s ties to the former Weatherman who wrote in 2001 “I don’t regret setting bombs [during Vietnam]. I feel we didn’t do enough.” Do enough?! Folks were blown up, including some of Ayers’ friends. Did he want more?

Obama and Acorn:
Community organizers, phony voters, and your tax dollars.

10/14/08 - WSJ Editorial (via Commentary Magazine and Instapundit)

[edited] Mr. Obama got his start as a Chicago "community organizer" at Acorn's side. In 1992, he led voter registration efforts as the director of Project Vote, which included Acorn. , He lauded Acorn's leaders last November for being "smack dab in the middle" of that effort. Mr. Obama served as a lawyer for Acorn in 1995, in a case against Illinois to increase access to the polls.

Chicago's Woods Fund funneled more than $200,000 to Acorn while Mr. Obama served on its board. More recently, the Obama campaign paid $832,000 to an Acorn affiliate. It reported to the Federal Election Commission that this was for "staging, sound, lighting.", but later admitted the cash was to get out the vote.

The Obama campaign is now distancing itself from Acorn, claiming Mr. Obama never organized with it and has nothing to do with illegal voter registration. Yet it is disingenuous [unbelievable] to channel cash into an operation with a history of fraud and then claim you're shocked to discover reports of fraud. As with Rev. Jeremiah Wright and William Ayers, Mr. Obama was happy to associate with Acorn when it suited his purposes. But now that he's on the brink of the Presidency, he wants to disavow his ties.

The Weathermen tried to kill my family
12/06/08 - City-Journal by John M. Murtagh 04/30/08
Murtagh was a child when the Weathermen fire-bombed his home.

[excerpt] In February 1970, my father, a New York State Supreme Court justice, was presiding over the trial of the so-called “Panther 21,” members of the Black Panther Party indicted in a plot to bomb New York landmarks and department stores.

Early on the morning of February 21, as my family slept, three gasoline-filled firebombs exploded at our home on the northern tip of Manhattan, two at the front door and the third tucked neatly under the gas tank of the family car. (Today, of course, we’d call that a car bomb.)

A neighbor heard the first two blasts and, with the remains of a snowman I had built a few days earlier, managed to douse the flames beneath the car. That was an act whose courage I fully appreciated only as an adult, an act that doubtless saved multiple lives that night.

Interview of John M. Murtagh
12/06/08 - YouTube (date not shown).
In this video clip (running 4:21), Fox news interviews the now grown John M. Murtagh. William Ayers' Weathermen fire-bombed his house, conflicting with the claim by Ayers that he never aimed to kill anyone.

Apr 22, 2008

Undocumented Employee Benefit

Great Moments in Government: The Birth of a New Tax Policy

(As it might have been)

Fred: I have a great idea. I got it when I read a story about the FAA, those airplane guys.

Mack: About how to raise taxes?

Fred: Not "raise", just collect the tax that we want, I mean that we are owed.

Mack: I've got to hear this.

Read more ...

Fred: Well, the FAA has a sweet operation. They make those airlines document EVERYTHING. So, if anything goes wrong, they look it up in the documentation, and there is always some paper mistake, or some rule that wasn't followed. Then, no one talks about the FAA, it is always about the airline's mistakes.

Mack: Come back to earth. How does that help us?

Fred: We allow businesses to deduct "expenses" so they don't pay tax on those.

Mack: Right.

Fred: But, what about stolen office supplies, phone calls home, donuts served at office meetings, extra furniture in the offices that isn't directly related to an employee's work, desk chairs that are more expensive than needed, break rooms with free coffee, and ...

Mack: Are you OK Fred? You are breathing hard. All of those things are allowed under the "Employer Convenience" rule. The employer provides a few free things that encourage employees to be more comfortable and to work better. They are at the employer's convenience and for the employer's benefit.

Fred: Yes, but we could make them DOCUMENT it. In detail.

Mack: That is ridiculous. The documentation work would be picky and enormous. They would never go to the trouble to . . . AH!

Fred: You see. It would be way too expensive to document. We could say, either document everything, or we will just ALLOCATE some part of your expenses to these Undocumented Employee Benefits. The allocated amount is no longer an expense, so we would collect the extra tax.

Mack: This is a moment. You are going to be an Assistant Director. This is big, complicated, and wonderful.

Fred: Yes, and what could they complain about? They can't say that they don't know, or can't keep records. They are running a business, after all.

Mack: You have created a new category: Undocumented Employee Benefit. This is history. But, won't this be a big burden on business?

Fred: The airplanes are still flying, right?

Links

Wall Street Journal: Tax on Talking

Apr 19, 2008

The CFL Advertising Account

[CFL's are great, except for one little thing]

Fred: Thank you Jim for landing the CFL United ad account. Let's work out the ad campaign.

Mike: I didn't get the memo. What does CFL United do?

Techno: They make Compact Fluorescent Lights. They are like those four foot tubes you see in warehouses, but these are about 1 foot long, really thin, and twisted around so they can fit in a the space of a light bulb. They have a different coating so the light isn't so blue, but more yellow. Sometimes they put a glass bulb around them so they look more regular.

Jim: These CFL's are great. Should be a lot easier to sell than bottled water. They actually save money, use less electricity, and are cooler. Let's just sell them as a win win win.

Fred: Here are the talking points:

  • Costs less
  • Uses 1/4 of the electricity for the same light as from a Regular 100 watt bulb
  • Lasts 10,000 hours compared to 1,000 hours for a regular bulb.
Techno: Uh, they don't cost less. A CFL is $5.00, a Regular is $.50 .

Mike: OK, there is big hit up front, but they save money on electricity, right?

Techno: Over its lifetime of 10,000 hours, a 25 watt CFL uses 250 KWH (kilowatt hours), compared to the same light from 10 Regular 100 watt bulbs, each lasting 1000 hours, and using 1000 KWH total. Here is the summary for 10,000 hours of use, with electricity costing $.10 per KWH.

100 watt Reg 10 bulbs $5.00 1,000 KWH $100.00
 25 watt CFL  1 bulb  $5.00   250 KWH $ 25.00
                                 Saves $75.00
Mike: OK, no problem. Buy 10 CFL's and save $750. Get rich!

Techno: Yeah, if you don't turn them off.

Fred: Is that supposed to be a joke?

Techno: Not really a joke. CFL's are complicated. First, they need a high voltage to operate, which they get from some miniaturized electronics in the base. Second, they have a coating on the inside metal contacts which helps the electricity start flowing. They are hard to get going. When you turn one on, the electronics take some stress and that metal coating evaporates a bit.

Turning one on takes away some of the CFL's life. Once on, no problem. Turn one on and it can last 10,000 hours. If you turn it off, you have to turn it on later, which costs some of its life. So, don't turn it off.

Jim: Whoa! We can't tell people to just leave them on. How long do they last if you turn them off?

Techno: That's hard to say. CFL United isn't too clear about the matter. They don't say, really. And the aftermarket studies don't dwell on this either. But, reasoning backward from some statements here and there, I estimate that the consumer grade CFL loses 5 hours of life each time it is turned on.

Mike: So you get 10,000 hours or 2,000 on/off cycles, whichever comes first. What if I put one in the bathroom? I bet my family turns that light on and off about 10 times a day, for about 5 minutes each time.

Techno: That CFL is going to last about 6 months (200 days). A Regular bulb in that use would last about 39 months. Regular bulbs don't care if they are turned on and off. In that use, the CFL costs $9.89/yr compared to the Regular at $3.04/yr, counting cost of bulbs and electricity. This is mostly the cost of bulbs for the CFL, and the cost of electricity for the Regular.

Mike: (shaking his head slowly) Not good. Not good. Is there anywhere these CFL's can actually be used cost effectively?

Jim: How about the kitchen or family room?

Techno: Yes, if you need to leave them on for a while, CFL's are cost effective. Fluorescent bulbs are always used in warehouses and offices, where they are on for 8-16 hours per day.

Jim: Cut the suspense. How long for our CFL?

Techno: I figure that the break-even is about 20 minutes. If you need the light on for at least 20 minutes, the CFL saves enough on electricity to offset the cost of turning it on, compared to a Regular 100 watt bulb. After that, you actually save money, about $.0075 per hour (3/4 cents).

In the winter, the break-even is 38 minutes, because you benefit from the expensive heat that the Regular bulb puts out. In the summer, the break-even is 15 minutes, because the greater heat of the Regular bulb requires more air-conditioning.

Mike: We're saved. They are actually good for something after all.

Fred: OK people, calm down. We've been through this sort of thing before. We have our campaign.

  • Saves 75% of the electricity of a regular bulb.
  • Lasts 10,000 hours* compared to 1,000 hours for regular bulbs.
  • Saves $50 per bulb over its lifetime, compared to using regular 100 watt bulbs.
  • Environmentally friendly
  • * As measured in bulb-life studies. For maximum bulb life, leave the bulb on for 15 minutes or more for each use.

Jim: I like the part about maximum bulb life. It slyly suggests that even if the bulb might be injured by short uses, you can heal it by leaving it on a bit longer.

Mike: Why do we claim only $50 per bulb in savings?

Fred: Clearly these bulbs aren't going to last 10,000 hours, so we'll claim more reasonable savings, but still big. Since they can use less energy, in the right situations, they are environmentally friendly. Right?

Jim: You have a strange look on your face Techno.

Techno: What about the other facts? Do you guys have my memo?

Mike: I didn't quite read that memo. What's in it?

Techno: There are a few other things.

  • Most CFL's contain about 5 mg of mercury. They are supposed to be disposed of as hazardous waste, but there is no program to take them.
  • They need a careful cleanup if you break one.
  • The twisty ones, with no outer glass bulb, can emit enough UV radiation at 1 foot away to produce a sunburn.
  • If you use them in an enclosed fixture, or base up in the ceiling, the electronics get hot, and its life is reduced. I couldn't find out by how much. There are many manufacturers, and you can't tell how long a brand is going to last, or how it reacts to heat or on/off cycles. You need to trust, or you can always pay more for a higher quality CFL.
  • They are somewhat longer and wider than a regular bulb, so they don't fit everywhere.
  • Many CFL's, especially the $5 ones, have a slow start-up. It takes them 30 seconds to 3 minutes to fully light up. If you use them outdoors in the cold, some of them never fully light up, or they don't start at all.
  • You can't use the cheap CFL's with a dimmer, but there are some that will work.
  • CFL's are fluorescent. Some people get headaches from the light, or they see the 60 cycle flicker and can't read by them, or they hate the color of the light, or they hear a faint buzz.
  • CFL's get 20% dimmer as they age toward failure.
  • A house has many bulbs that are almost never used. It makes no sense to place $5 bulbs in those locations, rather than a $.50 bulb that will last for 5 years anyway.
Jim: That is a lot to handle. How is CFL United going to sell these things?

Fred: Need I remind you that CFL United has hired us? We are helping them sell these things. Also, we are informed that CFL United has done a good job in the US Congress pushing the idea of saving energy. So, everyone is going to buy CFL's, because the Regular bulb is going to be prohibited. Green technology and all of that.

Guys, we have our campaign. Techno, you are always unhappy. CFL's have a few flaws, but there is no need to go into the small details. Let's get the art work in production and sell, sell, sell.

Links

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CFL bulbs spark safety fears
01/23/09 - HealthZone.ca Canada by Jen Skerritt of the Canadian Press

[edited] Health Canada is testing compact fluorescent lights. Two months earlier, Britain's Health Protection Agency warned the public that the bulbs emit UV rays.

They recommend that people should not be closer than 30 cm (1 foot) from an energy-saving light bulb for more than one hour per day, saying it is like exposing bare skin to direct summer sunlight. This could cause problems for people with medical conditions like lupus.

The bulbs have been widely promoted in Canada as an easy way to reduce greenhouse gases and are expected to replace incandescent bulbs by 2012 after a federal ban eliminates them.

The first comment is interesting:
[edited] I hate these bulbs. They give me migraines! They do not produce enough light to read by even when they are just behind my shoulder shining on the book page. One out of three malfunctions in some way (breaks etc). They take up to 5 minutes to reach maximum output. I'm usually gone by then. They are the wrong shape for most of my existing fixtures. If a new product is legislated in it should at least be as good as the one they are kicking out. I'd switch to LED but have issues again with having to replace every light fixture in the house. I like saving electricity but at what price?

CFLs and a call for civil disobedience
01/06/09 - Christopher Fountain reports on the EPA Guidelines for cleaning up after a broken CFL. Don't break one! Here is a small excerpt.

[edited] Pending the completion of a full review of the Maine study, EPA will determine whether additional changes to the cleanup recommendations are warranted. The agency plans to conduct its own study on CFLs after thorough review of the Maine study.

Disposal of Clean-up Materials
- Immediately place all clean-up materials outdoors in a trash container or protected area for the next normal trash pickup.
Wash your hands after disposing of the jars or plastic bags containing clean-up materials.
- Check with your local or state government about disposal requirements in your specific area.
- Some states do not allow such trash disposal. Instead, they require that broken and unbroken mercury-containing bulbs be taken to a local recycling center.

How to live with CFL's Lots of facts.

Home automation and CFL's Facts and discussion.

Popular Mechanics
Problems with CFL's discussed in the comments.

Misty.Com
The compact fluorescent lamp is actually a fairly conventional, small fluorescent tube packaged with its own power converter (ballast).

Wikipedia: Compact Fluorescent Lamp
The life of a CFL is significantly shorter if it is only turned on for a few minutes at a time: In the case of a 5-minute on/off cycle the lifespan of a CFL can be up to 85% shorter, reducing its lifespan to the level of an incandescent lamp. The US Energy Star program says to leave them on at least 15 minutes each time to mitigate this problem.

MN Energy Challenge
For most areas of the United States, a general rule-of-thumb for when to turnoff a fluorescent light is if you leave a room for more than 15 minutes. In areas where electric rates are high and/or during peak demand periods, this period may be as low as 5 minutes. Fluorescent lights are more expensive to buy,and their operating life is more affected by the number of times they are switched on and off, relative to incandescent lights.

Therefore, it is a cost trade-off between saving energy and money by turning a light off "frequently"and having to replace the bulbs "more" frequently. This is because the reduction in usable lamp life due to frequent on/off switching will probably be greater than the benefit of extending the useful life of the bulb from reduced use. By frequent we mean turning the light off and on many times during the day. Lighting manufacturers should be able to supply information on the duty cycle of their products.
[AG: But they don't]

Ann Porter: Most Life Out of a CFL
"Switching CFLs on and off does shorten lamp life, but [the] conclusion that they need a three- to five-hour on-cycle to maintain a reasonably long life does not appear to be correct. Robert Clear, a staff scientist at Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory, told Environmental Building News that it has been difficult to get data on this question, but a 1998 study of electronically ballasted CFLs found a 20% reduction in lamp life if the on-time was reduced to one hour. With significantly shorter on-times, the lamp life is dramatically reduced: with15-minute on-time cycling, lamp life dropped 70% and with five-minute on-time lamp life dropped 85% (which brings the lamp life close to that of incandescent light bulbs).

"This suggests that you should consider replacing incandescents with CFLs in any application where the lamp is on an average of [at least] about 10 minutes per start," said Clear. He added that "every switch cycle is equivalent to about 6 minutes of lamp life. This means that you should turn a CFL off if you think it won't be turned on again for another five minutes or so." This approach should also maximize electricity and cost savings."

[AG: These facts don't seem to be consistent with others. It seems that the various factors affecting CFL operation are remixed in a different way, with different conclusions.]

Daily Mail News
Why 'green' light bulbs aren't the answer to global warming, by Christopher Booker

Rod Elliott
Should There be a Ban on Incandescent Lamps? A very detailed examination of CFL and lighting issues.

Tim Stevens
Are Energy-Saving Bulbs Causing Migraine Headaches?
[AG: It seems so]

- -
Why Did my CFL Burn Out So Fast?
(09/03/10) - About.com by Bob Formisano

[edited]  Get used to frequent recycling. One of the biggest myths in all the CFL hype is the rated life of the bulb. Article after article repeats the same misleading "fact" that you will get 6,000 or more hours of life from the CFL. Well, both consumer complaints and lab research are showing how untrue this is.

The rated life for a CFL is measured in either 4 hour on/off cycles or continuously on. Unfortunately, they are sensitive to the number of cycles (and many other factors), so most uses will not see near their claimed 6,000 hours or 10,000 hours of use.

That severely reduces the savings, if any, from using CFL's in most applications and locations. Further, if you hate the light quality or the buzz, then saving some money is a trade-off, not a no brainer.

The requirement to use CFL's is a case of regulatory capture. Big business is writing law to capture profits, in the name of green energy. The entire green energy movement is a profit-seeking venture. Al Gore, high priest of green, became a billionaire by investing in companies that were made rich by favorable regulations after the fact.

Mar 29, 2008

Why Doesn't Obama Renounce His Bigoted Church?

Politicians want to progress from office to higher office. Barack Obama based his Illinois political career on the black power politics of Chicago, and holds his US Senate seat because of this, and some luck in facing a senate election opponent who imploded. It seems that Pastor Wright was crucial for 20 years to Obama's connections and success.

Obama's message is: Some of Wright's statements are wrong, but Wright is basically a good guy with love in his heart. My words matter, and they are different from Wright's words.

Read more ...

Running for president is a wonderful opportunity and a gamble. If Obama does not win the presidency, he surely wants to keep his job as US senator. He can't burn the bridge that keeps him in national politics. Obama does not renounce Wright, because Wright's speeches reflect the beliefs of a large fraction of Obama's support for his senate seat. Obama's direct words were "I can no more disown him [Wright] than I can disown the black community".

This makes Obama a politician who has gained political power by satisfying his base. He is not a courageous statesman who gained authority by teaching a better way or by reconciling different views. Actually, Obama is supporting a church that accepts and teaches the old, divisive way.

Obama plays the old political game of saying different things to different groups. The message along the way is: I'm saying things to my political base only to keep their support. Ignore that, because I'm telling the truth to you.

Personally, I reject politicians who look for support by accepting and supporting racism, regardless of its value as a political tactic.

Mar 28, 2008

A Political Speech: Coming Together

[Satire]

My fellow Americans.

May I first say that all of you are the most intelligent, beautiful, clear thinking, generous, patriotic, and deserving people that I have met, along with all of the other great people of your town, city, and state.

Our great country and especially our government is torn by disagreement. It is astonishing that we elect people to government, using so much time and at great expense, only to witness these people disagreeing and arguing. They don't get much done, and they make a lot of conflicting arguments and noise while they are not doing things. They are now spending about $3 Trillion (that's 12 zeroes) per year on programs that they argue about. It is time to end partisan differences so that we can do so much more good.

My administration will reach across the aisle to both parties, and especially to the opposing and obstinate party, to gain agreement and smooth the operation of government. We will smile rather than argue.

Some pay taxes and others receive benefits.
- I will bring them together.
Some charge for their services, and others want free services.
- I will bring them together.
Some want a powerful military, and others want a philosophy of peace and forgiveness.
IWBTT
Some want to have earmarks for political supporters, and others want to reduce spending.
IWBTT
Some explain why my policies are wonderful, and others stupidly and maliciously object.
IWBTT
Some want my political party to rule forever, and others want to end this benevolent rule.
IWBTT

So I say the following to all of you, and especially to those who want a job with my administration, or a subsidy or grant from us, or want to run a program, or supply a program, or just want to have the street fixed in front of your home.

We should soon be the party in power, and we will be, with your help.