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Jan 6, 2009

Disobedience Using Compact Fluorescent Lights

CFLs and a call for civil disobedience
01/06/09 - Christopher Fountain reports on the EPA Guidelines for cleaning up after a broken Compact Fluorescent Light. Don't break one! Here is a small excerpt.
[edited] Pending the completion of a full review of the Maine study, EPA will determine whether additional changes to the cleanup recommendations are warranted. The agency plans to conduct its own study on CFLs after thorough review of the Maine study.

Disposal of Clean-up Materials
- Immediately place all clean-up materials outdoors in a trash container or protected area for the next normal trash pickup.
Wash your hands after disposing of the jars or plastic bags containing clean-up materials.
- Check with your local or state government about disposal requirements in your specific area.
- Some states do not allow such trash disposal. Instead, they require that broken and unbroken mercury-containing bulbs be taken to a local recycling center.

See also The CFL Advertising Account.

Jan 5, 2009

Pelosi Silences the Republicans

Pelosi Moves to Erase Prior House Rules and Silence the Republican Minority
01/05/09 - Gateway Pundit
[edited] Democrat House Speaker Nancy Pelosi plans to re-write House rules today to ensure that the Republican minority will have no influence on legislation. Democrats are ready to assemble legislation in secret, then push it through Congress without debate or amendment. The proposals are draconian and polarizing. Any bipartisan cooperation with Obama will be rendered impossible before he takes office.

These rule changes will reverse the fairness rules of Newt Gingrich’s “Contract with America" made in 1995. Those reforms opened to public scrutiny a secretive House legislative process that had developed under decades of a Democratic majority.

The Republican reforms included opening committee meetings to the public and media, making Congress subject to federal law, term limits for committee chairmen to end decades-long fiefdoms, truth in budgeting, elimination of the committee proxy vote, authorizing House audits, specific requirements for blanket rules waivers, and guarantees that the minority party could offer amendments to legislation.

Scam: Telemarketers with No Number or Location

What I do to fight the good fight

I get about three phone calls/week from telemarketers.

About one call/week seems to be from a charity I have given to, or from some random "charity". How would I know who is really calling? Some of those calls start with "We don't want any money". The last one, from "... Heart Association ...", proposed that I get a mailing kit from them to mail 8 letters to my friends. I didn't find out if they wanted money for that. I told the rep that they had to be crazy, said "thanks", and hung up.

I am on the Do Not Call List. Maybe that has helped, but I don't know who has been polite enough not to call me. The law about calling allows charities, political organizations, and poll takers to call anyway. My preference is to have none of these organizations call me.

About two calls/week have been from automatic dialing systems with recorded messages. Two organizations are most interested in me. "Card Services" wants to lower the interest rate on my credit card balance. "Auto Warranty Center" wants to save me thousands of dollars in car repairs by extending the warranty on my car.

(I am only talking about the companies I have talked to that identify themselves this way. There may be other companies of the same names who haven't called me.)

I Won't Trust Them

These may be legal businesses, but they don't meet my standards for identifying themselves. They want me to pay and/or give them my credit card information immediately, right there on the phone, no waiting. They won't send any documentation ahead of payment. One rep said "These materials cost money, and there is the postage. We can't just send them out before we are paid". They offer a 30-day money-back guarantee, just call them back after they charge my card, if there is any way to contact them later.

They don't act like trustworthy businesses. I have asked both of them to stop calling me and to give me their address and phone number. They continue to call me, and they hang up when I ask for their identification.

According to The Federal Communications Commission , Card Services and Auto Warranty Center may have broken the law from the start:

[edited]  All artificial or prerecorded telephone messages must state at the beginning the identity of the business or individual that is responsible for the call. A business must give their registered name within their state. During or after the message, the caller must give the telephone number of the business (not the autodialer), so that you can call back to ask that the company no longer call you.

Their messages don't do that, unless the law thinks that "Card Services" is a legitimate identification. When I listened to the entire message, it only says "Press 1 for a representative, or 2 to remove your number from our list".

What I Have Done

I pressed 2 for a while, signaling the automated dialer to remove me from their calling list. It didn't work.

A few times I pressed 1 to talk to a representative. I strung them along for a while, giving no real information, to see what they wanted. At some point, they wanted my credit card information, either to bill me or (worse) "check my account" with my card number and PIN code. Of course, I don't give my card number to unknown people, and I never reveal the PIN, not even at the counter of a retailer. A PIN should only be typed into a keypad, and shield the keys from view.

They are well trained to hang up as soon as I ask for a business location. Sometimes, they give out a web site or callback number. These have been either empty shell websites, or someone else's website, or a fake number, so it doesn't prove anything. They hang up dispassionately and mid-sentence, when I show by my questions that I will not be a sale.

What I Will Do

I will always press 1 to talk to someone. Their operations depend on intelligent people not answering the automated call. Their auto-dialers probably call 100 people to get one gullible response. They depend on spending no human time talking to the thousands of people who they irritate and cannot lure into a transaction.

They provide key press 2 ("delete the phone number") to lower the number of people who want to talk to a rep. Of course it doesn't do anything.

If we all press 1, it will tie up their operations. You have a right to talk to a rep; they called you.

On a busy day, I press 1 and lay the phone down for a while, and they hang up in about a minute. I talk to the rep for a few minutes when I have the time. Sometimes, I ask the rep if he/she would show me that their business is not a scam, by giving me their business address and phone. They hang up. Sometimes, I ask the rep what it is like to work for a criminal organization. One time, the rep cursed at me before hanging up. Satisfying.

These unprincipled businesses/scams are stealing our attention and time. I think the only way to fight back is to use a little time here and there to waste their time.

Maybe someday we will convince our politicians to serve us by making these auto-dialed and cold-call practices clearly and simply illegal, not just with a no-call list and saying "pretty please".

Scammer Post-It Note

01/15/09 - I received a call from the robot dialer of Card Services and pressed "1" as usual to talk to a representative. We had talked for only a minute, and I had said "yes" to being interested in lower credit card rates.

The rep hung up abruptly. There was no reason from our conversation to drop me as a likely prospect. I assume that the rep looked at the post-it note on her terminal that told her not to talk to that guy, who was a waste of time.

I am encouraged that I have had a small effect on a scam organization. I have won a place on the side of a terminal, or on their own printed don't talk list. Join me in the fight.

Jan 4, 2009

Carbon Dioxide Does Not Drive Climate

Carbon Dioxide Does Not Drive Climate
01/04/09 - WSJ.com Notable and Quotable
TalkingAboutTheWeather.com by Harold Ambler, via HuffingtonPost
[edited] The theory that carbon dioxide "drives" climate in any meaningful way is simply wrong. Carbon dioxide cannot absorb an unlimited amount of infrared radiation. Why not? Because it only absorbs heat along limited bandwidths, and is already absorbing just about everything it can. (read more)

Jan 3, 2009

Gaza's Rocket Scientists

Gaza has its version of rocket scientists
01/03/09 - NationalReview by MarkSteyn
[edited] Westerners seem to expect more civilized behavior from Israel than from its adversaries.

Professor Samuel Huntington wrote "The Clash Of Civilizations" About 15 years ago. He argued that Western elites viewed man as a rational, economic creature, and that this was simplistic. Actually, cultural identity is a stronger force than the appeal of Western-style economic liberty and its benefits. Very few of us want to believe this.

At an unspoken level, we understand that Huntington is right. When French President Sarkozy (and others) bemoans Israel's "disproportionate" response, he expects better from the despised Jews than from Hamas. He regards Israel as a Western society bound by civilized norms, whereas any old barbarism issuing forth from Gaza is excused as "desperation."

Britain's Channel 4 says that we don't get the chance to see Islamic leaders like Iranian President Ahmadinejad speak for themselves. It is more accurate to say that they speak for themselves incessantly, but the louder they speak the more we put our hands over our ears and go "Nya nya, can't hear you."

Most Western elites believe that everyone wants to go to university, get a steady job, and settle down in a nice house. Against this belief, Ahmadinejad's statement that "England's demise is on our agenda" is almost literally untranslatable.

We deplore Ahmadinejad as a genocidal fantasist when he threatens to wipe Israel off the face of the map. But, maybe he's a genocidal realist, and we're the fantasists.

Jan 2, 2009

Write the Rating Agencies Out of Our Law

Write the Rating Agencies Out of Our Law
01/02/09 - Online.WSJ by Robert Rosenkranz

A bit wonky, it explains why the world invested in bad loans, and why we are in trouble now.

[edited] [ There are only a few government certified rating agencies, including S&P, Standard and Poors, and Fitch. ] Their ratings on bonds determine the amount of money (capital) that a bank by regulation needs to set aside for expected losses.

Ratings have a profound influence on how financial institutions invest their assets. Regulations make the rating agencies the de facto allocators of capital. Every participant in the financial system has every incentive to group and slice assets in ways that maximize their rating, not their fundamental soundness.

[ Large capital requirements (more money set aside) means owning fewer bonds and making less money on the coupon payments. ]

The $6 trillion structured finance business serves mostly to improve ratings. Subprime mortgages and all manner of other risky loans would deserve a "junk" rating if taken alone, and require high capital reserves.

The structured finance people bundled these assets and sliced the bundles into "tranches" [layers of repayment priority]. The rating agencies gave AAA ratings to 85% of the tranches by value, and gave "investment grade" to another 14%, thus turning lead into gold through ratings alchemy.

Read the rest ... A part of the story at "We Guarantee It" about the housing and financial crisis.

Learn finally what a "tranche" is, and amaze your friends at the next party.

Jan 1, 2009

Markets Take Time

The Crisis Prophet Speaks
01/01/09 - Econlog.Econlib by Bryan Caplan
[edited] Markets will respond to price changes, but the responses take time. People must discover the relevant changes, confirm and assess them, consider alternative arrangements of their affairs, and carry out those changes.

The competent economist knows patience is needed in evaluating the market's operation. We have no reason to conclude that "the market doesn't work anymore", simply because the market does not appear to have fully reconfigured itself soon after a shock.

Decent analysts know this; I am not breaking new ground here. So, we can only shake our heads in wonder when we see well-known, free-market economists and other formerly sound analysts taking unsound and ill-considered positions.

We must appreciate that the sky is not falling, even if the news media and the politicians act as if it is.

+ + +
Stimulus Does Not Cure a Recession
The population and millions of businesses built our economy. They will adjust to any new conditions, if the government does not raise taxes and waste resources. Government agencies created a financial crisis. Don't let government make a difficult situation worse.

Ponzi Schemes Like Social Security

Speaking of Ponzi Schemes
12/29/08 - BusinessAndMedia by Donald J. Boudreaux, Chairman, Dept. of Economics at George Mason University

[edited] Social Security is like the "investment" Ponzi scheme of Bernard Madoff, so Americans should stop being duped.

Many pols and pundits assure us that this program is a great financial deal for ordinary Americans. But in principle, Social Security is identical to Mr. Madoff's fraudulent scheme.

Neither scheme generates wealth through productive investments. They only transfer wealth from newer 'investors' to older 'investors.' Such schemes appear brilliant as long as enough new 'investors' come on board – either by being duped by Mr. Madoff or by being coerced by Social Security. This is a dangerous illusion.

You may not believe this warning. You may think that 435 congressmen and 100 senators would surely not continue to support a program that will end in pain for millions of individuals.

Government policy led to sub-prime loans, a bubble in housing prices, and a damaged economy and recession, despite many warnings along the way. Those same politicians vote for borrowing and spending far beyond any ability to tax. Their policy was and is "so far, so good" as they gain re-election through whatever promises they feel like making.

+ + + +
Investing with Bernie Madoff

CBO:  What Are US Treasury Trust Funds?
The bonds in the Social Security Trust Fund, and all Treasury trust funds, are promises, not assets. They are as good as other government bonds, which are also promises but not assets.
  The taxing power of the government is in doubt. The promises of the government are so large that all of its bonds may lose some or all of their value, including the bonds in the Social Security and other "funds". The bonds are a promise, but they don't help to pay for themselves.

The Biggest Promises Win
They promise anything to get elected.

Seduction and Politics
Politics is like a romantic first date.

We Guarantee It
A government guarantee is a blank check on your personal account. They will make good on the promise with your resources, and the next even bigger recession.

Dec 30, 2008

Diplomacy and Terrorism

Diplomacy and Terrorism
12/30/08 - ChicagoBoys by Shannon Love
[edited] For nearly three decades people like Greenwald claimed that if Israel merely ended the occupation of the Palestinian territories it would get peace. Instead it got human bombs and rocket attacks. Ditto for the withdrawal from Lebanon.

Terrorists stop for only two reasons: (1) They win and graduate to despotic rule (Mugabe), or (2) they’re physically prevented from acting. Israel has decided to go for reason (2). The rest of us should hope it succeeds.

Matthew Alexander on Torture

Matthew Alexander on Torture
12/30/08 - Schneier.com
I learned in Iraq that the No. 1 reason foreign fighters flocked there to fight were the abuses carried out at Abu Ghraib and Guantanamo. Our policy of torture was directly and swiftly recruiting fighters for al-Qaeda in Iraq."

The AIG Junket Fable

The AIG Junket Fable
12/30/08 - American Thinker by Tony Kondaks

[edited] Elizabeth Vargas repeated the myth that AIG executives wined, dined, and partied to the tune of $440,000 at the posh St. Regis resort in California just a week after AIG received $85 billion in a government bailout.

The St. Regis trip was a common incentive that agents compete for. They qualify by producing business during a designated time period. Virtually every life insurance company in the United States holds similar contests.

The junket was not for AIG executives or employees. It was for independent agents who sold insurance products for the American General subsidiary of AIG and received commissions and incentives. These agents probably represent another 5 or 6 insurance companies.

American General operates independently and enjoys a thriving financial status with high ratings separate from its parent company AIG.

Dec 29, 2008

Keynes, Digger of Holes

Obama’s Keynesian Error
12/29/08 - ChicagoBoys by Shannon Love

No one should trust a theory that predicts greater prosperity from digging holes. Yet, this is the theory by Keynes that Obama is following, and many past presidents have followed, to forcibly change our society. We will supposedly create even more wealth in the future by wasting our current wealth today.

I know. I must be wrong. No one could believe such a thing. Certainly no President of a great country would listen to a dead crank who spouted such nonsense. But, there it is.

The promised future wealth has never appeared. What will our leaders say when, again, the wealth does not appear, after wasting the resources that we have today. "So sorry. We just had to try something."

[edited] Keynes famously said that the government could stimulate the economy by simply burying large amounts of money in the ground and then letting people dig it up again. The money spent to dig up the money would drive the economy again.

Keynes' economic theory says that the movement of money itself from person to person creates a good economy. Keynes thought recessions occurred when people saved too much and spent too little, causing the money to stop moving. Government could “prime the pump” of the economy by taking the saved "static" money and spending it.

Money communicates information not by moving, but by differences in prices. Keynes was like a naive individual who discovers that phones lines carry information with electricity. He then decides that pushing more electricity will send more information. In reality, all he would get is a squeal. Likewise, moving money through the economy does nothing if that movement does not transmit information about the real value of economic choices.


The New Old Big Thing in Economics
01/08/09 - Online.WSJ.com by Sudeep Reddy
Another story about Keynes:

During a 1934 dinner in the U.S., one economist carefully removed a towel from a stack to dry his hands. Mr. Keynes swept the whole pile of towels on the floor and crumpled them up, explaining that his way of using towels did more to stimulate employment among restaurant workers.
Keynes point was brilliant, if you forget that the restaurant owner had already paid to provide clean towels. Keynes didn't offer to pay for the mess. The owner had to pay to replace the towels. Keynes's ideas are wonderful, as long as you can find owners to take resources from. After that, no more clean towels, and no need for restaurant workers to keep them available.

It seems that Keynes liked to be destructive, then say he was really helping everyone out.


- -
"Keynesian Economics" in The Political Dictionary
Understand politics by knowing the meanings of things.

Econ 201: The Myth of the Economic Multiplier
You don't create $40 in wealth by paying $10 to mow your lawn.

The Deadweight Loss of Taxes
Collecting $1 in extra tax kills $2 in production.

A Short Argument Against Stimulus
It isn't so stimulating when you know that it must be paid back.

Let's Counterfeit Our Way to Wealth
If Obama and Keynes are correct, that there is a 1.5 wealth multiplier on spending, then $100 in spending produces $150 in wealth, and we should all benefit from counterfeiting. It is not my fault that the belief in a multiplier is so outrageous that it leads to this outrageous result.

The Deadweight Loss of Taxes

Production and employment is reduced by increasing taxes, despite increased government spending. Raising taxes on anyone, especially the rich, lowers production in the U.S., and so lowers the number of jobs and pay levels. It is ironic that taxing the rich makes everyone poorer, the same effect as taxing the middle class. It makes us a lot poorer.

The term "deadweight loss" refers to what is lost or never produced because of some policy. A higher income tax rate produces responses that decrease investment and production (jobs).

The primary effect is to remove money from individuals who would invest it more efficiently than the government. People will also work less, earn less, and pay less tax, if they don't think the extra money they could keep after tax is worth the extra hours or risk.

The secondary effect is to give investments a lower rate of return after tax, so investors tolerate less risk and invest more in tax free bonds and legal advice to avoid taxes. This also lowers investment in new activities and reduces opportunities for better paying jobs.

As an extreme example, a 95% tax rate would convince most people to work less and spend more time and trouble on avoiding the tax. Any investment with even a little risk would be avoided.

In November 1999, Martin S. Feldstein was the George F. Baker Professor of Economics at Harvard University and former President of the US National Bureau of Economic Research. He investigated the current effects of income tax rates on the economy.

Tax Avoidance And The Deadweight Loss Of The Income Tax

[edited] Traditional analyses of the income tax greatly underestimate deadweight losses by ignoring its effect on compensation and consumption [jobs]. The full deadweight loss is easily calculated to be as much as 30% of total revenue.

The deadweight loss caused by increasing tax rates above current levels may exceed $2 per $1 of revenue increase.

I will restate this. Government activities and transfer payments had better be useful to the society, because economic output has already been lowered by 30% of the taxes currently collected. Further, $2 worth of production (jobs) will be destroyed for every additional $1 collected through increased tax rates.

To restate this, society begins with three units of production and jobs. After an increase in tax rates on the rich, those three units disappear, transferring just one unit to the purposes of the government. Two units just disappear, the deadweight loss of increasing the tax. The loss could be all three units if the activities of government produce nothing of value.

This is a severe loss, because there is no "stimulus" from that "extra" $1 in government spending. That $1 would have been invested or spent anyway. Taxes only move goods around from some people to other people, at great expense.

To transfer $1 to a needy voter, or bail out a public loss, the government will take $1 from a richer person, eliminating $2 in production of goods and services, also called jobs. By the same analysis, $1 of reduced tax from lower rates supports increased investment that in turn supports $2 in new production and jobs.

This easily explains why tax rate cuts under Reagan and G.W.Bush increased the prosperity of the U.S. And, it explains why the threat of tax rate increases under Obama has so frightened and lowered the stock market.

Government subsidies, guarantees, and bailouts kill prosperity because they require borrowing now and higher tax rates later. Higher tax rates usually produce increased revenue for government, while destroying twice as much income for the population in the bargain. Government spending today will be paid by printing money "out of thin air". This will cause inflation that will make everyone holding cash in a bank account pay for current spending as prices rise and their savings buy less.

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The Myth of the Economic Multiplier
I consider why it seems there should be a stimulus that goes beyond each dollar of spending, and why this is wrong. Government spending is a banquet, not a stimulus.

Public Tax Meeting
A story about proposed tax policy. What is it like in a small town to raise taxes on the wealthy 35% and give a rebate check to the 65%.

Dec 26, 2008

Mencken's Timeless Insights

Mencken's timeless insights
12/26/08 - PittsburghLive by Donald J. Boudreaux
An excerpt from a great article.
[edited] If I could bring one person back to life for an evening of good food, stiff drink and sterling conversation, that person would be H.L. Mencken (1880-1956).

Mencken thought the typical politician is a "merchant of delusions," a "pumper-up of popular fears and rages. The politician is never to be trusted.

"What is a political campaign save a concerted effort to turn out a set of politicians who are admittedly bad and put in a set who are thought to be better?"

"If experience teaches us anything at all, it teaches us this: that a good politician, under democracy, is quite as unthinkable as an honest burglar. His very existence, indeed, is a standing subversion of the public good in every rational sense. He is not one who serves the common weal; he is simply one who preys upon the commonwealth."

"It is to the interest of all the rest of us to hold down his powers to an irreducible minimum and to reduce his compensation to nothing; it is to his interest to augment his powers at all hazards, and to make his compensation all the traffic will bear."

+ + +
The Political Manual: Adequate Compensation
As a politician, get paid what you are worth.

The Bernie Madoff I Knew

12/26/08 - PajamasMedia by Laura Goldman --> Article

Easy Opinions - The Bernie Madoff I Knew

[edited] Known as the Jewish T-bill, Bernie was very charming and low key at the meeting. The former chairman of the NASDAQ stock exchange did not want to answer questions about his investment business and strategy.

The UAW Reneges

The UAW Reneges
12/24/08 - Investor's Business Daily Editorial

[edited] The White House last week granted $17 billion in emergency bailout cash to auto makers, with conditions on both management and labor. The UAW union agreed to cut worker's pay to the levels of their successful competitors, Toyota, Honda and Nissan.

Just days before Christmas, the UAW let it be known it will fight any concessions on wages and benefits. Union boss Ron Gettelfinger broke the deal almost before the ink was dry, calling concessions "An undue tax on the workers".

Read More ...

More of the story at Bailing Out Auto Makers Without Conditions

Obama's Secretary of Earmarks

12/26/08 - WSJ.com Review and Outlook --> Article

"Doling out money" in Congress is a desired position and a respected skill, recognized by Obama in a welcoming and bipartisan manner.

[edited] Obama nominated Illinois Republican Congressman Ray LaHood to head the Transportation Department. He is a longtime member of the House Appropriations Committee and a spending superstar. He supported without apology the big spending that helped Republicans lose their majority in 2006. In fiscal 2008 he arranged $62.7 million in earmarks for his district, in the top 10% of House pork-barrelers.

He said, "The reason I went on the Appropriations Committee, the reason other people go on the Appropriations Committee, is they know that it puts them in a position to know where the money is at, to know the people who are doling the money out and to be in the room when the money is being doled out."

He said, "If people like Ray LaHood [himself] and others aren't able to earmark dollars, that money will be spent by some bureaucrat in Washington, D.C. And, who knows better how to spend money on worthwhile projects than a community and an individual Congressman?"

The Law is Going from Bad to Worse

The Law: Going from Bad to Worse
12/25/08 - Econlog.Econlib by Bryan Caplan

Maybe "The Law" is only a soothing idea to help us bear up in an arbitrary society ruled by political power and whim.

[edited] At the risk of offending many friends, I think the law is a shockingly phony discipline. Virtually everyone imagines that the law agrees with what they favor on non-legal grounds. Almost no one admits that many or most laws are so vague that there is no "fact of the matter" about what they mean.

Once in a while, a law professor has told me this verbatim, and then has gone back to arguing about the law. The philosopher in me insists, "If there's no such thing as unicorns, we can't argue about unicorns," but the Great Unicorn Debate never stops.

Problems With Green Energy

Wind Power Fail
02/17/11 - Whats Up With That

[edited]  A $200-million wind farm in northern New Brunswick, Canada is frozen solid, cutting off a supply of renewable energy for NB Power.

The 25-kilometre stretch of wind turbines has been shut down for several weeks due to heavy ice covering the blades. The ice alters the aerodynamics of the blades, rendering them ineffective as airfoils. The added weight further immobilizes the structures.

Suez's website states its wind farms on average produce about 35% of their capacity on an annual basis, accounting for daily and seasonal fluctuations in wind patterns.

Remember that figure "35% of their capacity" when you interpret stories about wind turbines and the energy they will deliver. Delivered power is always much less than rated capacity. But, costs are almost always estimated according to rated capacity, and so costs are almost always understated according to the power delivered.

- -
Wind Power in Spain
05/18/10 - Chicago Boys by David Foster

This information comes from a leaked Spanish government report on their wind power program.

[edited]  The report takes pains to minimize the economic harm, yet reveals exactly why electricity rates “necessarily skyrocketed” in Spain, along with the public debt spent on this disaster. The Zapatero administration recently acknowledged that the “green economy” must be abandoned, lest they risk Spain becoming Greece.

An independent study found that Spain’s “green economy” program removed 2.2 jobs for every job “created” by the state. The government report does not directly confirm this. Instead, the government figures show even greater job-losses.

Energy is a key input in industrial production. Energy costs in basic industries are three times the labor costs (cement, industrial gases, metals, basic chemicals, and steel). Electricity costs for Spanish industry are 17% higher than the European average.

-- --
Spain's Green Economy is a Disaster
05/21/10 - Pajamas Media by Christopher Horner

La Gaceta: “Spain admits that the green economy as sold to Obama is a disaster.”

[edited]  The Spanish newspaper La Gaceta reports on Spain’s “green jobs” boondoggle, the plan cited eight times by President Obama as his model for the United States. It is now known to be a costly disaster. Even the Socialists admit this, with the media in full pursuit.

Spanish president José Zapatero had rejected a study about the fatal economic consequences of renewable energy. Now, a leaked internal document from the Spanish cabinet supports that study, and is even more negative.

Zapatero wants to continue his grand bet. But, the minister of Industry, Miguel Sebastián, worries that the enormous debt from investment in so-called clean energies could delay Spain’s exit from its economic crisis.

The leaked report admits that the price of electricity has gone up, along with the debt, due to the extra costs of solar and wind energy. Government numbers indicate that each green job created costs more than 2.2 traditional jobs, as was shown in the previous report of the Juan de Mariana Institute.

Spanish solar plants charge 12 times more than for the same energy from fossil fuel combustion. Most of this is a subsidy charged to the consumer. It is not possible to continue injecting money into these projects with the economy at the point of bankruptcy.

-- --
Trouble Brewing for Wind?
05/14/10 - At Spectrum IEEE by Bill Sweet

[edited]  "Wind Energy Update" is an independent business intelligence service which publishes "The Wind Energy Operations & Maintenance (O&M) Report".

Current O&M costs for wind farms are two or three times higher than first projected, and there has been a 21% decrease in investment returns. O&M costs are especially high in the United States, "now the world's largest wind power market".

They estimate average world O&M costs at $.27 per kilowatt-hour (KWH). The value of US wind production credits is about $.20 per KWH. Almost 80% of the world's wind turbines are under warranty, but "this is about to change". Many gearboxes, designed for a 20-year life, are failing after six to eight years of operation.

Operation and Maintenance (O&M) costs are all of the daily costs for producing wind power. This would not include the cost of fuel (there is no fuel), or the costs of buying land and building the wind turbines.

The report of $.27 as being 2-3 times more than projected means that developers wildly underestimated the costs of operating wind turbines. They estimated $.09-$.13, but the real cost is $.27.

The major concern is that this higher cost even exceeds the subsidies ("production credits of $.20") being handed out by governments. This report does not clearly say why the costs are higher. A big part must be the failures of the gearboxes, the huge transmissions that connect the blades to the generators. These are a major, expensive component, like the transmission in a car. The gears are lasting for only one-third of their intended life.

You probably pay around $.11 per KWH for your residential electricity, which was produced for about $.03 to $.05 per KWH (Coal 2.97 Gas 5.00 Nuclear 2.03). It is costing $.27 per KWH to produce wind power, and your cost will be more, except for the cost that is hidden in government subsidies (higher taxes and fewer jobs).

-- --
Vibrating Wind Farms
08/10/09 - American Thinker by Thomas Lifson

Neighbors of wind farms have discovered that they are far from benign, clean, efficient ways of harnessing energy to our needs. Jeff Swiatek of The Indianapolis Star reports:

[edited] The tips of those giant blades move at about 160 mph, creating low-frequency vibrations through the ground. People three-quarters of a mile away sometimes feel the vibrations in their chests. Cases of nausea, headaches, insomnia, and other ills are called "wind turbine syndrome".

That new illness is just one of a growing list of health effects, inconveniences, risks, and costs causing a backlash against wind farms in other states.

Reflections from the rotating blades creates "shadow flicker", a strobe light effect on nearby homes.

Wind farms have broad environmental impact. They are located in rural areas, often on ridgetops or in mountain passes. They require quarter-acre clear zones for the turbines, and long cuts through forests for permanent service roads.

The blades turn day and night, efficiently killing birds and bats. Some studies show large wind farms located on ridgetops or in migratory paths kill thousands of birds a year, though other studies report a lower figure.

-- --
Germans To Pay Much For Offshore Wind Power
07/25/09 - Future Pundit by Randall Parker (Via Instapundit)

[edited] Germany is phasing out nuclear power plants before the end of their useful lives, building more coal electric plants, and will make Germans pay for offshore wind electric power.

The wholesale price will be US 21¢ per KWH, plus retail markup to pay for distribution and billing costs. Compare this to the average US retail price of 11.28¢.

You can't order up wind power in response to demand spikes. You get it only when the wind blows. Electric power that can increase in response to demand spikes commands a higher price than steady, baseload power like a nuclear power plant that runs all the time. That 21¢ wholesale price for an undependable power source is a very high price to pay.

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Problems With Green Energy.
12/26/08 - AmericanThinker by Thomas Lifson

Darn, there are always a few glitches.

[edited] Reliability and maintenance problems of green energy sources are highlighted in a strikingly honest report in today's New York Times by Kate Galbraith.
In winter, wind turbine blades ice up and may hurl chunks of ice as they rotate, biodiesel fuel congeals in the gas tanks of buses, and solar panels produce less power in the weaker sun, or no power when covered with snow.

Even in northern California, with mild winters and little snow, solar panels can generate about half as much as in the summer, depending on how much they are tilted.

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Alternative Power Is and Will Remain Useless
02/28/10 - Chicago Boyz by Shannon Love

The physical and technical reasons why alternative energy (Green Power) is a political scheme, not a useful way to produce bulk power. The comments are also good.

[edited]  There exists no alternative energy source or combination of such sources that can fully replace a single, conventional electric plant, a plant fueled by coal, gas, oil, or nuclear power. Even hydro-power needs conventional backup.

Yet, many want us to rely on these functionally useless technologies to be the primary energy sources for our entire civilization.

Most discussions consider the cost and reliability of electricity at the place it is generated. However, energy is useful only where and when you need it. Plenty of power in Arizona won't help you in Michigan. A roaring fire in July doesn't warm you in January. The only real factors that count are the cost and reliability of power at the place it is consumed. Bulk alternative energy is mismatched to its uses.


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Fred:  We'll build wind turbines everywhere and store the excess energy in hydro facilities.
Mike:  That will work for places that are flat and windy, next to mountains that will support a hydro dam. What about the other places?

The Myth of Alternative Power and Hydro- Electric Storage
06/17/10 - ChicagoBoyz by Shannon Love

[edited]  "Alternative energy" can’t be used for baseline power because it is not reliable, and we can’t make it reliable by storing the electricity that it episodically generates.

What about energy storage in a hydro-electric dam? Pumps would use alternative power to lift water behind the dam. When wind or solar power is not available, we could drain the water through turbines to create electricity.

Suppose alternative power should produce 30% of our current baseline power needs. If alternative power (optimistically) operates 75% of the time, we would need a 25% stored reserve. 25% x 30% is 7.5% of our total electric power needs.

Coincidentally, hydro-electric power today produces 8% of U.S electricity. If we want to use hydro-electric storage to make alternative power reliable, we will have to recreate 93% of the generating capacity of every current hydro-electric facility. That includes Hoover Dam, the entire TVA, and all of the dams in the Rocky Mountains.

All the places with the geography and water to produce hydro-electric power are already in use. Worse, the places that produce significant amounts of solar and wind power, the desert and the plains, are very far from that geography, requiring expensive power-line connections.

The full post has more information and many interesting comments.

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Solar Panels Are Hideous

Residents of New Jersey are unhappy with the solar panels installed by the state's largest utility company on electrical poles in leafy residential neighborhoods. See a picture at the link.

Dec 25, 2008

What Caused Unemployment in the Great Depression?

Another Great Depression?
12/23/08 - TownHall.com by Thomas Sowell

[edited] You might think:
  • The 1929 stock market crash was a failure of the free market.
  • The crash led to massive unemployment in the 1930's.
  • Roosevelt rescued the economy with the New Deal.
It is a pity to spoil this story with facts, but we should avoid repeating the catastrophes of the past.

The October 1929 crash did not create massive unemployment according to both official government statistics and new statistics by scholars Richard Vedder and Lowell Gallaway in their book "Out of Work."

Vedder and Gallaway follow unemployment month by month. The unemployment rate was 5% in November 1929, a month after the crash. It hit 9% in December, then trended downward to 6.3% in June 1930, 8 months after the crash.

Then, the Smoot-Hawley tariffs were enacted, despite dire warnings by economists across the country. Five months later, November 1930, unemployment rose past 10%.

The rise in unemployment after the crash of 1929 was a blip compared to soaring unemployment reached after a series of unprecedented government interventions by Hoover and Roosevelt. From February 1932 to December 1934 (almost 3 years), the unemployment rate was at least 20%, and was 19.3% in January 1935.

The evidence suggests that it was not the financial crisis in 1929 that caused massive unemployment, but politicians' attempted "solutions". Are we repeating that history now?

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The New Deal and the Great Depression We in government don't like risks or new ideas, but we can sure spend money. That will improve things.
09/19/09 - Cafe Hayek by Don Boudreaux

Don Boudreaux [edited]:

Robert Higgs in Investor's Business Daily summarizes his research. Bad policy prolonged the Great Depression, and it did not end with WWII.

Bob Higgs [heavily edited]:

The government tried to spend us out of the Depression, as it has tried several times since. But, these policies delay recovery, rather than trigger it.

Money-losing investments must be reorganized, so good assets can be put to better use. If the government saves failed companies through investments and subsidies, this reorganization is slowed or stopped. The mistakes of the past are locked in place, hindering the creation of future wealth and jobs. Such New Deal recovery efforts had exactly these effects, as do current government policies.

Roosevelt’s recovery program spent billions of dollars with no sound economic logic. But, they made matters even worse when they threatened property rights and called private investors "economic royalists". They pushed through policies attacking the foundations of private enterprise, especially after 1935.

A recovery needs knowledge, investment, and people who can do new things and manage risk. Government can supply money, but it is taken from the entrepreneurs who are vital to the recovery, and given to the people who are in failing businesses. Entrepreneurs can do less, so recovery is slowed.

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Waiting for the jobs Obama is building a new society. I'll wait until he is done.
07/02/09 - Instapundit

What is causing job losses now?

Small business owners are standing by the fence and watching, paralyzed by regulatory uncertainty. They aren’t hiring precisely because of government intervention in the economy. So-called stimulus won't change that.